UK election polls: Rising odds of a Conservatives majority - GBP positive

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

The latest UK election opinion polls conducted for several UK news publications showed on Saturday that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s Conservative (Tory) Party maintains its lead over the opposition Labour Party, although almost half the polls showed the Tory lead narrowing.

Key Findings

According to the YouGov poll conducted for the Sunday Times newspaper revealed that the support for the Conservatives (CON) stood steady on 42% vs. Labour’s (LAB) at 30%. The lead shows a gap of above 10 points.

Separately, the Deltapoll for the UK daily, Mail, showed that the support for Tories stood at 43%, down two percentage points from last week, while Labour was unchanged at 30%. The third-placed Liberal Democrats gained 5 percentage points of support, rising to 16%.

According to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Express newspaper, Johnson’s lead over the Labour Party has narrowed a little since Wednesday. The support Conservatives was unchanged at 42% but that for Labour rose by a point to 32%. The Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party were unchanged at 15% and 5%.

Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper showed that the lead is at its widest since 2017, with Conservatives now enjoying the support of 47%, up three points from last week, while Labour remained at 28%. The Liberal Democrats fell two points to 12%, while the Brexit Party fell to 3%.

The latest poll by BMG for the Independent newspaper revealed the Conservatives were on 41%, up 4 points compared with the last BMG poll on Nov. 10. Labour fell a point to 28%. The Liberal Democrats rose two points to 18%.

FX Implications

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

GBP/USD hangs close to 1.3500, awaits fresh impetus from US CPI

GBP/USD keeps its range around 1.3500 in Wednesday's European trading. The pair continues to trade with caution as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground ahead of a crucial US consumer inflation report. Investors are watching this upcoming reading closely, as it is expected to play a major role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision and the USD valuation.

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.1550 ahead of US CPI

EUR/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction and holds steady around 1.1550 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, maintaining a familiar range held over the past week or so. Traders keenly await the release of the key US inflation data and further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis before placing fresh directional bets.

Gold retakes $4,400, eyes two-month high as traders look to US CPI for Fed hike cues

Gold attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and climbs back above the $4,400 mark, closer to its highest level since June 5, which was touched the previous day. Traders now look to the US Consumer Price Index report for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's future policy path amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices.

Zcash below $500 puts bulls under pressure, 100-day EMA in focus

Zcash price trades below $500 at press time on Wednesday, holding steady after two consecutive days of losses. Retail demand for the privacy coin is mixed as the broader market awaits the release of US Consumer Price Index data for July later in the day.

US CPI data set to show softer inflation in July as markets reassess Fed rate hike bets

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the July Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a small decline in consumer inflation and core inflation. The monthly CPI is forecast to rise by 0.1%, following the 0.4% decrease recorded in June, while the annual reading is seen retreating to 3.4% from 3.5% reported in the previous month.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.