Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers strongly from $29.00 on sluggish US Retail Sales

Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back strongly from the crucial support of $29.00 in Tuesday’s American session. The white metal struggles to gain ground even though the United States (US) Retail Sales grew meagrely by 0.1%, slower than expectations of 0.2% after contracting by 0.2% in April, downwardly revised from a stagnant performance.

The US Census Bureau reports that households cut heavily on discretionary items as banks remain reluctant to increase credit growth due to fears of an increase of delinquency costs. Sales at service stations were lower due to soft gasoline prices.

Slower-than-expected Retail Sales growth suggests deepening household crises due to higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This has weighed on the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders its entire losses and drops to 105.30.

10-year US Treasury yields slump to 4.25%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Slower growth in the US Retail Sales has boosted expectations of early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability for rate cuts in the September meeting has increased to 67% from 61.5%, recorded on Monday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades in a Falling Channel chart pattern in which each pullback is considered as a selling opportunity by market participants. The asset aims to shift above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $29.40.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a consolidating ahead.

Silver four-hour chart