NZD/USD Price Forecast: Falling in possible C wave of bearish pattern

NZD/USD is steadily declining in what could be the final wave of a large zig-zag pattern.
It is not yet oversold and could reach lower lows given the bearish short and medium-term trends.

Joaquin Monfort FXStreet

NZD/USD is falling in what might be the C wave of a bearish ABC pattern which began life at the September 30 highs.

ABCs are zig-zag patterns in which waves A and C are usually of a similar length or a Fibonacci 61.8% of the other.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

NZD/USD will probably fall to a target at 0.5911, the point where wave C is 61.8% of A. A break below the 0.5956 low would provide confirmation.

It is possible it could fall all the way to the major support level at 0.5849 (August 5 low). A really bearish move could even see an extension to 0.5784, the point where wave C = A.

The outlook is supported by the fact that the pair is in a bearish short and medium-term downtrend and “the trend is your friend”. The Kiwi pair is, however, in a sideways long-term consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is not yet oversold (below 30) suggesting there could be more downside to come. When it reaches oversold traders will be advised to not add to their existing short positions.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

FXStreet

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold meets contention near $4,420…for now

Gold extends its recovery past the $4,500 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The yellow metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin’s massive storm is back: Why the sell-off is far from over

Bitcoin price action over the last few weeks has felt less like a normal, healthy correction and more like a slow grinding crash that continues to wreak havoc on holdings and trading accounts. And everything suggests that the dramatic crash isn’t over.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.