- NZD/USD drifts lower on Tuesday and is pressured by a combination of factors.
- Bets for aggressive RBNZ easing and China’s economic woes weigh on the Kiwi.
- Expectations for a less dovish Fed underpin the USD and contribute to the slide.
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of the 0.5800 mark or a near two-week low and attracts fresh sellers on Tuesday. Spot prices retain intraday bearish bias through the first half of the European session and currently trade around the 0.5825-0.5820 region, within striking distance of a one-year trough touched in November.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be undermined by expectations for a more aggressive policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Adding to this, disappointing readings on China's exports and imports added to worries about a fragile recovery in the world's second-largest economy, which further undermined demand for antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, exerts additional pressure on the NZD/USD pair.
In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, looks to build on the post-NFP bounce from a nearly one-month low amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a cautious stance on cutting interest rates. Moreover, the worsening Russia-Ukraine war and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive some haven flows towards the buck. This, along with concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs, weighs on the NZD/USD pair.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, though traders might await the release of the US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday. The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be looked for cues about the interest rate outlook in the US and guide Fed policymakers on their decision later this month. This, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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