- NZD/USD receives downward pressure due to the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.
- The NZD may appreciate as traders expect more stimulus measures from China as the NPC Standing Committee concluded its meeting.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank will continue evaluating economic data to guide future rate decisions.
NZD/USD depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives downward pressure from the concerns about Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, given that New Zealand is a close trading partner to China. The NZD/USD pair trades around 0.6010 during the Asian session on Friday.
However, investors are hopeful about potential stimulus measures from China as the National People’s Congress Standing Committee concluded its five-day meeting. Any positive change in the Chinese economy could positively impact the New Zealand markets.
The slight improvement in the US Treasury yields provides support for the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against the other six major currencies, improves to near 104.50 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.20% and 4.33%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The NZD/USD pair rose by over 1% on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark overnight rate, setting a new target range of 4.50%-4.75% at its November meeting.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that the US central bank will continue to monitor economic data to guide the "pace and destination" of future rate adjustments, noting that inflation is gradually easing toward the Fed’s 2% target. Investors are now focused on the upcoming preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, due on Friday.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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