NZD/USD declines towards 0.5800 as DXY rebounds, US PMI buzz

NZD/USD is expected to drop to near 0.5800 as the DXY has rebounded firmly.
The impact of the Fed’s hawkish guidance will stay for longer.
Investors have punished the kiwi dollar on weaker Trade Balance data.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair is coming out of the woods as the US dollar index (DXY) has rebounded firmly. The asset has been oscillating in a narrow range of 0.5836-0.5857 and is expected to deliver a downside break, which will drag the asset towards the critical support of 0.5800. Earlier, the asset witnessed a steep fall after failing to sustain above the crucial hurdle of 0.5880. A re-test of the fresh two-year low at 0.5804 will direct the decisive move ahead.

The US dollar index (DXY) has rebounded sharply after the momentum oscillators turned oversold on small timeframes. The DXY is still inside the consolidation range of 111.13-111.44 and an upside break of the same will drive the asset towards a fresh two-decade high at 111.81. The DXY is gaining momentum as the impact of the higher-than-expected hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stay for longer.

As per the Fed’s policy, the interest rates will peak at around 4.6%. The target for an optimal terminal rate structure has escalated significantly and its consequences have strengthened the negative market sentiment, which is supporting the DXY.

Going forward, the release of the S&P Global PMI will be of utmost importance. As per the preliminary estimates, the Manufacturing PMI will land lower at 51.1 vs. the prior release of 51.5. While the Services PMI will improve to 45.0 against the prior print of 43.7.

On the NZ front, weaker Trade Balance data pushed the kiwi bulls n the tenterhooks. The deficit in NZ Trade Balance data has widened further to -$12.28B vs. the prior release of -$11.97B on an annual basis. Also, the monthly deficit has widened to -$2,447M against the former figure of -$1,406M. The August report on Trade Balance dictates that the imports have advanced to $7.93B vs. the prior print of $7.76B. However, the export numbers have declined to $5.48 in comparison with the former release of $6.35B.

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.5838
Today Daily Change	-0.0014
Today Daily Change %	-0.24
Today daily open	0.5852

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6037
Daily SMA50	0.6177
Daily SMA100	0.6252
Daily SMA200	0.6506

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.5888
Previous Daily Low	0.5804
Previous Weekly High	0.6162
Previous Weekly Low	0.594
Previous Monthly High	0.647
Previous Monthly Low	0.6101
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.5856
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.5836
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.5808
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.5764
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.5725
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.5892
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.5932
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.5976

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD holds above 0.6900 ahead of Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from its lowest level since early July and trades above 0.6900 in the Asian session on Friday. Thursday's disappointing Australian jobs data tempered RBA rate-hike bets, capping the Aussie. The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, is regaining positive traction as this week's hot US CPI and PPI reports keep Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. This further limits the pair ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00, with eyes on Warsh's speech

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday, holding on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of 157.50, or a one-week low, amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. This week's hot US CPI and PPI reports lifted Fed rate-hike bets, which, along with stable US bond yields and geopolitical uncertainties, help revive USD demand. Traders, however, remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which could cap the currency pair ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech.

Gold eases to $4,150 as traders await Warsh's speech

Gold drifts lower to near $4,150 in the Asian session on Friday, reversing part of the previous day's move up amid reviving US Dollar demand. US inflation data released this week reaffirmed bets for at least one Fed rate hike this year, while US bond yields stabilize after Thursday's steep decline. This, along with geopolitical risks, underpins the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen weighing on bullion ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech.

Ethereum reclaims $2,400 as PPI hits 6.3% and yields fall

Ethereum (ETH) is back above $2,400 on Thursday, rebounding from a brief decline toward $2,340, which was sparked by an upside surprise in the US wholesale inflation report. The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually in September, far above expectations of 0.5% and 5.3%, respectively.

US midterms put fiscal policy under the spotlight, treasury sell-off raises risk

The US will hold its midterm elections - a de facto referendum on the Trump administration - on 3rd November after two years shaped by rising trade protectionism, attacks on Federal Reserve independence and, since the spring, the Iran war. Republicans are expected to take a heavy electoral hit.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.