Natural Gas snaps losing streaks and soars higher on US production disruptions

Natural Gas price (XNG/USD) is snapping its losing streak on the tenth day of the correction. Gas prices are ticking up over 1% just ahead of the start of the US session with supply and production concerns as storm Beryl hits Texas. Seeing the projected path the storm will take in the coming days, the region and more inland, several outages and disruptions could mean a short-term setback for Gas exports and production in the region. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is on a very choppy ride on Monday, with traders a bit clueless about which direction to follow. Bond markets are applauding the government stalemate formation in France, with the yield spread between Germany and France retreating, while the US Dollar has been dipping lower, though back to flat now into the European trading session. Looking forward, the DXY might be back into a clear pattern, with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June being the main event this week. 

Natural Gas is trading at $2.39 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers: US markets ticks up

• Additional headline this Monday on Slovakia that is securing near 30% of its gas imports by signing a deal with Poland. This eases and limits the risk for Russian pipepline disruptions and phases out the country's dependence from Russian gas. 
• Recent energy component numbers from China reveal that Hydrogen energy is contributing a more significant than expected part of electricity ahead of the summer. With rising temperatures, the need for electricity increases to keep air conditioning cooling, and normally sees an uptick in Gas consumption. That is being partially offset by hydrogen energy taking its place in the energy pie, according to Bloomberg. 
• Gas imports into Europe are not at peak levels and are expected to surge from 18% in 2021 to 43% by 2025-2030, Bloomberg predicts. 
• Reuters reports that the Freeport Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility in Texas has successfully ramped down its production so that Storm Beryl can make its passage in the region. Production has been reduced by 86%.
• The National Hurricane Center warns of strong winds and flash flooding as Beryl hits the Texas shore on Monday and is set to head further inland over Arkansas, Tennessee and Missouri in the coming days. 

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: The bounce is playing out

Natural Gas price bounces right off the support level FXStreet mentioned in previous articles at $2.29, with the double trampoline put in place by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) alongside the green ascending trend line. The bounce seems to be working for now, though any slightest break below $2.29 could see a wave of selling orders. Thus, bullish Gas traders will be trading this bounce with a tight stop-loss trade regime should the double support area not hold. 

The 200-day SMA is the first force to reckon with on the upside, near $2.52, closely followed by the 55-day SMA at $2.61. Once back above, the pivotal level near $3.08 (March 6, 2023, high) remains key resistance after its false break last week, which is still 20% away. 

On the other hand, the support level, which could mean some buying opportunities, is $2.29, the 100-day SMA that falls in line with the ascending trend line since mid-February. In case that level does not hold as support, look for the pivotal level near $2.13, which has acted as a cap and floor in the past. 

Natural Gas: Daily Chart