Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to regain $1,900 as yields plummet, US inflation eyed – Confluence Detector


  • Gold price grinds higher after refreshing five-week high, prints three-day uptrend.
  • Clear upside break of $1,865 support confluence keeps XAU/USD bulls hopeful.
  • US regulators’ defence of SVB, Signature Bank fails to trigger rebound in US Treasury bond yields.
  • US inflation data, consumer-centric figures, headlines surrounding SVB and Fed chatters will be crucial for near-term directions.

Gold price (XAU/USD) cheers the previous day’s upside break of the $1,865 hurdle, now support, to refresh a five-week high amid a broad risk-on mood. Adding strength to the precious metal’s advance is the broad-based US Dollar weakness as the US regulators’ efforts to tame the financial crisis, due to the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank fallout, fail to trigger a rebound in the US Treasury bond yields. The reason could be linked to the market’s fears that the Fed’s rate hikes have made the US banks fragile enough to trigger a recession, which in turn weighs on the Fed rate hike concerns despite the recently firmer US data and upbeat testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

It should be noted, however, that the Asia-Pacific equities’ inability to cheer the US Dollar weakness, despite rising of late, join the fears of fresh US-China tension to prod the Gold price upside. Furthermore, the cautious mood ahead of this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Dollar’s notable fall despite posting a better-than-expected jobs report for February also challenge the XAU/USD bulls. 

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Acceptance above $1,900 is critical for XAU/USD, US CPI in focus

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price is all set to reclaim the $1,900 threshold as the metal trades successfully beyond the $1,865 support confluence, now resistance, that comprise the Fibonacci 38.2% on one month.

That said, the Pivot Point One Week R1 guards the XAU/USD’s immediate upside near $1,890.

It should be noted that the Fibonacci 61.8% in one-month highlights the $1,902 as an extra filter towards the north.

Alternatively, the quote’s downside break of $1,865 resistance-turned-support will need validation from the $1,857 level, including Fibonacci 23.6% on one week, to recall the Gold bears.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stays below 1.0700 after upbeat US PMI data

EUR/USD stays below 1.0700 after upbeat US PMI data

EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.0700 as the US Dollar benefits from upbeat data in the American session. S&P Global reported that the economic activity in the US private sector continued to expand at a robust pace in June.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops to fresh multi-week low below 1.2650

GBP/USD drops to fresh multi-week low below 1.2650

GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since mid-May below 1.2650. The stronger-than-forecast Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US helps the USD hold its ground and causes the pair to stretch lower.

GBP/USD News

Gold drops below $2,340 as US yields rebound

Gold drops below $2,340 as US yields rebound

Gold loses its traction and trades deep in the red below $2,340 in the second half of the day on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield pushes higher following the upbeat PMI data from the US, weighing on XAU/USD.

Gold News

Bitcoin retraces to crucial support

Bitcoin retraces to crucial support

Bitcoin price encounters resistance at weekly highs before retracing to seek support at a crucial level, while Ethereum and Ripple align closely with Bitcoin's movements, gearing up to surpass resistance barriers and embark on upward rallies.

Read more

Week ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Week ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024. Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI. Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures