Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD revisits sub-$1,900 area as risk appetite improves

Update: Gold (XAU/USD) remains on the back foot around $1,892, following a fresh run-up to refresh the eight-month high with $1,908.

The yellow metal’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s hope of Ukraine diplomacy amid fresh chatters over a summit between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Also weighing on the metal’s safe-haven demand is the scheduled meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

However, headlines conveying the US preparedness to levy harsh sanctions on Russia, in case of Ukrainian invasion, keep the market optimists on the edge. Additionally challenging the risk-on mood is the lack of major data/events in Asia, as well as an off in the US financial markets due to the US Presidents’ Day.

Even so, preliminary readings of February month’s PMI figures will direct intraday moves. However, risk catalysts and the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading, will be more important to track for clearer directions.

End of update.

The price of gold has been toing and froing around each and every headline around Russia, Ukraine and the latest attempts to avert war through diplomacy. At the time of writing, gold is around flat near $1,896 but has travelled between a high of $1,908.32 and a low of $1,891.68 so far. 

The headlines are rolling in, but the consensus in markets is that there will be a US/Russian summit that could help to defuse the situation around Ukraine. This has been confirmed by the White House, but the caveat is that there cannot be an invasion of Ukraine and the US is of the mind that one is imminent. The US announced that Russia appears to continue preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov next week, calming investor nerves and slowing demand for safe-havens. The White House said US President Joe Biden will give an update on the Russia-Ukraine situation at 4 p.m. ET on Friday.

The price of gold could soon fall back into the determining hands of the hawks as the focus switches over to monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. In this regard, for the week ahead ears will be to the ground for Fed speakers. ''Most focus will be centred on Governor Waller, who will be discussing the U.S. economic outlook on 24 February,'' analysts at TD Securities said. ''Presidents Bostic, Barkin and Mester are also scheduled to deliver remarks.''

Gold technical analysis

Markets are jittery on the headlines with gold falling into the 4-hour consolidation area, as forecasted as follows: 

''The 4-hour chart shows that the price is poised for a possible break to the downside considering the deceleration of the correction. A break of $1,890 could be on the cards for the opening sessions to open the way to the daily chart's 38.2% Fibo near $1,880.''

In the live 4-hour chart above, the price is near resistance and unable to close above it. Should consecutive failures occur n the upside, then the bears will be looking for a test of the prior lows with the support area near $1,890 a firm target to break.