Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD renews multi-day high above $1,900 amid risk-aversion

Update: Gold (XAU/USD) takes the bids to poke June 2021 highs, up 0.60% intraday around $1,910 during Monday’s Asian session.

In doing so, the yellow metal extends the previous three-week uptrend to refresh an eight-month high as traders rush to risk-safety amid escalating concerns over the Russia-Ukraine issue.

Recently, a Reuters’ witness mentioned that an explosion was heard in the center of the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. That said, the US continues to suggest an imminent Russian military attack on Ukraine even as Moscow rejects the claims. It’s worth noting that a diplomatic meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is the ray of hope to witness de-escalation of the geopolitical fears and hence can test XAU/USD bulls.

While portraying the risk-off mood, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.50% on a day while the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields remain pressured.

It should be observed, however, that the recently downbeat US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, also add to the gold buyers’ optimism ahead of this week’s key inflation numbers.

End of update.

Gold, XAU/USD, was little changed on Friday, but the trend followers are still engaged with traders seeking safe-haven assets. Stocks slid in Europe and on Wall Street while safe-haven government debt prices rose due to increased shelling in Ukraine's East and a tough stance from Russia is unsettling financial markets. 

XAU/USD ranged between $1,886.66 and $1,902.54 on Friday ending flat on the day while more warnings from the US that a Russian invasion is imminent continued to put pressure on risk sentiment on Friday night, with developments likely to be a key driver of markets this week, analysts at ANZ Bank said. ''The US has warned that multiple cities could come under attack, causing significant civilian casualties, while Russia continues to deny any plans to invade.''

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve hangs over prices like a knife on a string. ''Looking forward, however, the crushing weight of a hawkish Fed will ultimately sap appetite for precious metals,'' analysts at TD securities argued. ''Without sustained buying behaviour, gold prices are unlikely to remain in an uptrend, particularly as real rates rise sharply amid dual tightening via hikes and quantitative tightening. However, if gold prices are going to succumb to this macro regime as we expect, then CTAs are accumulating at the top.''

For the week ahead, there is plenty going on from the economic calendar. We will have a chorus of Fed speakers and the PCE report as well as Markit PMIs. ''Fed officials will remain occupied this week trying to guide the market ahead of the March FOMC meeting and following signs of persistent data strength in Q1, particularly on inflation,'' analysts at TD Securities said. ''Most focus will be centred on Governor Waller, who will be discussing the US economic outlook on 24 February. Presidents Bostic, Barkin and Mester are also scheduled to deliver remarks.''

Gold technical analysis

The bulls have squeezed the bears to a weekly resistance and the daily chart's Fibonacci scale of ratios is compelling at this juncture. 

The 4-hour chart shows that the price is poised for a possible break to the downside considering the deceleration of the correction. A break of $1,890 could be on the cards for the opening sessions to open the way to the daily chart's 38.2% Fibo near $1,880.