- GBP/USD extends its decline as risk aversion rises, driven by renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
- Trump reiterated plans to impose a flat 25% import tax on all goods entering the US from Canada and Mexico.
- The Pound Sterling struggles as traders expect the BoE to continue its rate-cut cycle in February.
GBP/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.2420 during the Asian hours on Friday. This downside is attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) amid increased risk aversion following renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
President Trump reiterated plans late Thursday to impose a flat 25% import tax on all goods entering the US from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over fentanyl. The first wave of tariffs on both countries is set to take effect on February 1, according to Reuters. Additionally, Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Oil exports. He also reaffirmed his threat on X (formerly Twitter) to levy 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar in international trade.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, trades above 108.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback strengthened after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a cautious tone regarding its policy decision in January.
The US Federal Reserve held its overnight borrowing rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. This decision followed three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point.
During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering any further adjustments to monetary policy.
The Department of Commerce reported that Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) fell to 2.3% from 3.1%, missing expectations of 2.6%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 207K, below forecasts of 220K but an improvement from the previous week’s 223K.
Investors now turn their attention to key US data releases later on Friday, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Personal Income and Spending figures, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).
The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces pressure as traders anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) will resume its rate-cut cycle at next week’s policy meeting. The BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February, marking its third cut since August, when borrowing costs peaked at 5.25%.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to strong gains above 1.1050 as US-China trade war deepens Premium
EUR/USD trades decisively higher on the day above 1.1050 on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) stays under persistent selling pressure on growing fears over a recession, as a result of the US trade war with China. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March policy meeting.
GBP/USD holds above 1.2800 on broad USD weakness
GBP/USD stays in positive territory above 1.2800 in the American session on Wednesday. After China's decision to respond to the US tariffs by imposing additional 84% tariffs on US goods, the US Dollar remains under pressure and helps the pair hold its ground ahead of FOMC Minutes.
Gold extends rally to $3,050 area as safe-haven flows dominate markets
Gold preserves its bullish momentum and trades near $3,050 in the second half of the day. Further escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China force markets to remain risk-averse midweek, allowing the precious metal to capitalize on safe-haven flows.
Top 3 gainers NEO, Plume and Story: NEO surges despite Trump's tariff firestorm as investors succumb to extreme fear
Cryptocurrencies are enduring progressive market carnage from the US President Donald Trump administration's incessant tariffs on its trade partners, with some selected altcoins like NEO, Plume and Story (IP) leading the bullish brigade on Wednesday.
Tariff rollercoaster continues as China slapped with 104% levies
The reaction in currencies has not been as predictable. The clear winners so far remain the safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc, no surprises there, while the euro has also emerged as a quasi-safe-haven given its high liquid status.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.