|

Forex Today: US data and FOMC should dictate the price action

The Greenback traded slightly on the defensive against the backdrop of another session of muted price action in the FX galaxy. In the meantime, Chief Powell and President Lagarde left no room for surprises at their discussion panel at the ECB Forum. Meanwhile, investors get ready for a slew of US data releases on Wednesday, along with the FOMC Minutes, prior to the US Independence Day holiday and the UK general elections on July 4.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 3:

The USD Index (DXY) maintained its bearish stance in place for the fourth session in a row, although navigating tight ranges and always below the 106.00 hurdle. A busy calendar on July 3 will see the release of weekly Mortgage Applications in the first turn, seconded by the ADP Employment Change and Balance of Trade. In addition, Initial Jobless Claims come later prior to the final S&P Global Services PMI, Factory Orders, the ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Minutes.

EUR/USD advanced modestly and revisited the 1.0750 zone amidst a generalized muted price action in the global markets. On July 3, the ECB Forum will enter its third day, while the final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the broader euro bloc are due.

Everything was flat but GBP/USD on Tuesday, as the pair managed to print marked gains and extend its recovery for the fourth consecutive session. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on July 3.

USD/JPY advanced marginally on Tuesday, although it was enough to clinch another multi-decade top in the 161.70–161.75 band. The final print of the Jibun Bank Services PMI is expected on July 3.

AUD/USD remained sidelined in the sub-0.6700 region, managing to partially fade the negative start to the week. In Oz, the Ai Group Industry Index is due on July 3, ahead of the final Judo Bank Services PMI and preliminary readings of Building Permits and Retail Sales.

Prices of WTI rose to fresh three-month highs north of the $84.00 mark per barrel, just to give away all those gains and return to the sub-$83.00 region towards the end of the NA session on Tuesday.

Prices of Gold navigated a narrow range near $2,330 per ounce troy amidst the broader consolidative phase in place since mid-May. Silver, on the flip side, printed acceptable gains and extended its recovery for yet another session, retargeting the key $30.00 mark per ounce.

Author

Pablo Piovano

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

More from Pablo Piovano
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD struggles as traders evaluate BoE policy, UK political developments

GBP/USD steadies after three days of losses, trading around 1.3430 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. After recently surging toward two-month highs near 1.3550, the pair has moderated as foreign exchange traders evaluate shifting monetary policies between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve alongside political developments in the United Kingdom.

EUR/USD bears retain control below 200-SMA on H4; break of 1.1400 awaited

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating during the Asian session on Tuesday and trading just above the 1.1400 mark, or a four-day low touched the previous day. Market participants seem hesitant and keenly await the highly-anticipated European Central Bank meeting on Thursday before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.


Gold: Acceptance above 21-day SMA at $4,065 is critical for buyers

Gold is building on its recovery from two-week lows of $4,024 reached last Friday, extending the winning streak into a third straight day on Tuesday. XAU/USD is capitalizing on the ongoing pullback in Oil prices from monthly highs near $84.50. The black gold is retreating for a second day in a row on emerging signs of diplomatic efforts to ease the US-Iran conflict.

Ripple and Stellar: Mixed signals keep traders at a crossroads

Ripple and Stellar trade within tight ranges as traders await the next directional move. XRP’s technical indicators suggest bearish momentum is fading, while XLM continues to consolidate near a critical support zone. Mixed derivatives metrics highlight growing market indecision, raising the likelihood of a volatile breakout in either direction in the coming days.

Here's where the Canadian Dollar is headed next: 4 bearish scenarios and a bullish one
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune. Neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve has changed rates so far this year, and the USD/CAD's next move may depend on which of the two banks fails to deliver what markets expect.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.