Forex Today: Trade wars in the spotlight ahead of US NFP, Aussie benefits from retail sales

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Friday’s Asian session carries the late-Thursday moves, triggered through the trade war escalation, as the US President Donald Trump stands ready to tax the hell out of China unless they agree for a trade deal. Adding to the pessimism was North Korea’s third round of missile test in a week’s time and the White House notice of the President Trump’s EU trade term announcement at 18:45 BST on Friday. At the data front, Australian Retail Sales and PPI flashed upbeat numbers while BOJ minutes sound a bit hawkish.

USD/JPY holds its stand as a winner while Gold stands on the other extreme amid worries emanating from China, one of the world’s largest bullion user. The AUD/USD benefits from upbeat Australia data raising bars for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) immediate rate cuts whereas NZD/USD couldn’t ignore commodity traders’ pain. Moving on, the GBP/USD extended its downpour as UK lawmakers continue preparing for a no-deal Brexit while EUR/USD retreats as markets prepare for Eurozone Retail Sales, US employment data. Furthermore, USD/CAD couldn’t portray the WTI increase, driven due to the fresh US-Venezuela tension, and the USD/CHF portrays downbeat market sentiment before Swiss inflation numbers.

Main Topics in Asia

President Trump to make an announcement on EU trade at 13:45 EST

US Secretary of State: China has taken advantage of trade for decades – Bloomberg

Aussie Retail Sales beat by 0.1% MoM, miss 0.1% QoQ

Japan removes South Korea from trusted export white list - Bloomberg

President Trump: Until there's a deal, we'll be taxing hell out of China

BoJ Minutes for Jun 19 and 20 2019 meeting: Members felt it appropriate to keep easing persistently

US President Trump ruled out Treasury Sec. Mnuchin’s proposal to warn China – Bloomberg

UK Chancellor Sajid Javid orders HMRC to ramp up no-deal Brexit preparations – FT

Moody's: UK’s credit profile vulnerable to new government’s spending plans

US officials: North Korea conducts new projectile launch – Reuters

Key Focus Ahead

It’s the US jobs report day and hence nothing matters more than the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) up for publishing at 12:30 GMT. However, July month Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone Retail Sales for June can offer intermediate moves. Additionally, Canadian trade numbers, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Factory Orders could also entertain traders.

Having witnessed two months of volatile employment numbers from the US, the NFP are returning to the long-term averages with 164K forecast. Also, the Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) can increase to 3.2% from 3.1% while no change is expected from the Unemployment Rate of 3.7%.

EUR/USD: Focus on US non-farm payrolls, today’s close pivotal

EUR/USD rejected near 1.11 in Asia, possibly due to risk aversion. The quote could drop below 1.10 if the US non-farm payrolls data blows past expectations. Bull hammer reversal likely if the data misses estimates.

GBP/USD: No respite for Sterling bulls despite sliding US yields

GBP/USD rejected at 5-day MA hurdle amid Sino-US trade tensions. US 10-year bond yield fell 20 basis points on Thursday but failed to put a strong bid. A weaker-than-expected US jobs data could yield a corrective rally.

Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Focus on wages in a dollar-friendly setup – Five EUR/USD scenarios

US Non-Farm Payrolls are set to provide a fresh direction after markets digested the Fed decision. Low expectations may lead to a positive surprise. The US dollar is well-positioned into the release.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Aug 01
24h	CHF National Holiday
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change	65B	57B	36B
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction	2.08%		2.11%
19:00	BRL Trade Balance	2.293B	3.800B	5.019B
19:30	USD Total Vehicle Sales		16.9M	17.3M
23:50	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)	3.7%	3.2%	4.0%
Friday, Aug 02
01:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%	1.9%
01:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%
01:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
06:30	CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.3%	0.0%
06:30	CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.5%	0.6%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Change		-21.4K	-63.8K
07:00	HUF Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
07:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index		46.5	47.7
08:00	EUR Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY)		-2.1%	-0.7%
08:00	EUR Industrial Output s.a. (MoM)		-0.3%	0.9%
08:00	BRL Fipe's IPC Inflation			0.15%
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a		77.30K	77.02K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a		2.3%	2.1%
08:30	GBP Markit Construction PMI		46.0	43.1
09:00	EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)		0.2%	-1.8%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)		0.4%	-0.7%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		0.8%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		-0.3%	-0.1%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	-0.3%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.3%	1.3%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			12%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$430.38B
12:30	USD Average Weekly Hours		34.4	34.4
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)		3.2%	3.1%
12:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls		164K	224K
12:30	USD Unemployment Rate		3.7%	3.7%
12:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
12:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate			62.9%
12:30	USD Trade Balance		$-54.6B	$-55.5B
12:30	CAD Imports		$51.80B	$52.34B
12:30	CAD International Merchandise Trade		$-0.30B	$0.76B
12:30	CAD Exports		$51.50B	$53.11B
13:00	SGD Purchasing Managers Index			49.6
13:45	USD ISM-NY Business Conditions Index			50
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.5	98.4
14:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		0.8%	-0.7%
15:00	DKK Currency Reserves			449.6B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			776
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$54.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$251.2K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			397.9K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-78.6K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-9.4K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-39K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-48K
23:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			90.7
Saturday, Aug 03
n/a	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			28.8%
Sunday, Aug 04
21:00	KRW FX Reserves		402.49B	403.07B
22:30	AUD AiG Performance of Services Index			52.2
23:00	AUD Commonwealth Bank Services PMI			51.9
23:00	AUD Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI			51.8
Monday, Aug 05
24h	EUR August Holiday
24h	CAD August Civic Holiday
00:00	AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM)			0%
00:30	JPY Markit Services PMI		52.3	51.9
01:00	NZD ANZ Commodity Price		0.0%	-3.9%
01:30	AUD ANZ Job Advertisements			4.6%
01:45	CNY Caixin Services PMI		52.9	52.0
n/a	IDR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			5.07%
n/a	IDR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			-0.52%
05:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)		-10	-6
06:00	RUB Purchasing Manager Index Services			49.7
06:30	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)		-0.5%	-1.7%
06:45	EUR Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ)			0.4%
06:45	EUR Individual Investment (Current Year)			11%
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.09%
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (YoY)			25.04%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.05%	0.03%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY)		15.74%	15.72%
07:15	EUR Markit Services PMI		52.7	53.6
07:45	EUR Markit Services PMI		50.0	50.5
07:50	EUR Markit PMI Composite		51.7	51.7
07:50	EUR Markit Services PMI		52.2	52.2
07:55	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.4	55.4
07:55	EUR Markit PMI Composite		51.4	51.4
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.4	53.3
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		52.1	51.5
08:30	GBP Markit Services PMI		51.0	50.2
08:30	EUR Sentix Investor Confidence		0.1	-5.8
10:00	ILS Budget Balance - ILS			-6.8M
11:30	CLP IMACEC			2.3%
12:00	RON Interest rate decision		2.5%	2.5%
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence		108.8	106.1
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence s.a		109.1	107.5
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI			52.2
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			51.6
14:00	USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		55.5	55.1
22:45	NZD Participation Rate		70.9%	70.4%
22:45	NZD Employment Change		0.5%	-0.2%
22:45	NZD Unemployment Rate		4.2%	4.2%
22:45	NZD Labour Cost Index (YoY)		2.1%	2.0%
22:45	NZD Labour Cost Index (QoQ)		0.5%	0.3%
23:00	KRW Current Account Balance		6.27B	4.95B
23:01	GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)		0.1%	-1.6%
23:30	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)			-0.2%
23:30	JPY Overall Household Spending (YoY)		1.6%	4.0%
Tuesday, Aug 06
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.71%	3.43%
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.15%	0.31%
00:01	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Services			56.9
01:30	AUD Exports			4%
01:30	AUD Imports			1%
01:30	AUD Trade Balance		5,250M	5,745M
03:00	NZD RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ)			2.01%
04:30	EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)			2.7%
04:30	AUD RBA Rate Statement
04:30	AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision		1%	1%
05:00	JPY Coincident Index		98.8	103.4
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index		95.0	94.9
06:00	EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)		3.5%	-2.2%
06:00	EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)		-7.0%	-8.6%
07:00	CZK Industrial Production (YoY)		1.0%	3.2%
07:00	CZK Construction output (YoY)			0.2%
07:00	CZK Foreign Trade Balance (MoM)		10.9B	24.4B
07:00	CHF Foreign Currency Reserves			759B
07:30	SEK Industrial Production (MoM)			-0.4%
07:30	SEK Industrial Production (YoY)			1.6%
07:30	SEK New Orders Manufacturing (YoY)			3.2%
11:00	ILS FX Reserves			$120.108B
12:55	USD Redbook Index (YoY)			4.5%
12:55	USD Redbook Index (MoM)			1%
13:00	RUB Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0%
14:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings		7.268M	7.323M
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			2.7%
n/a	USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM)			56.6
16:00	USD Fed's Bullard speech
17:00	USD 3-Year Note Auction			1.857%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			-6.9%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-6.024M
22:00	AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index			43
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves			$1,322.3B
23:50	JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
Wednesday, Aug 07
24h	COP Battle of Boyaca holiday
01:30	AUD Home Loans		0.3%	0.0%
02:00	NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
02:00	NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision		1.25%	1.50%
02:00	NZD Monetary Policy Statement
03:00	NZD RBNZ Press Conference
06:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)		-1.8%	-3.7%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		0.4%	0.3%
06:00	DKK Industrial Production (MoM)			3.5%
06:00	ZAR Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve			$49.804B
06:00	ZAR Net $Gold & Forex Reserve			$43.94B
06:45	EUR Imports, EUR			€47.54B
06:45	EUR Trade Balance EUR			€-3.28B
06:45	EUR Exports, EUR			€44.27B
06:45	EUR Current Account		€-0.556B	€0.300B
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY)			-1.6%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM)			-0.7%
07:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)		6.2%	8.7%
07:00	CZK Retail Sales (YoY)		5.0%	2.7%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.3%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)			5.7%
07:30	EUR ECB's Cœuré speech
08:00	CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)		¥3.113T	¥3.119T
08:00	CZK FX Reserves			€128.3B
09:00	INR Reverse Repo Rate		5.25%	5.50%
09:00	INR RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)		5.50%	5.75%
09:30	ZAR Business Confidence Index			93.3
10:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.8%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-1.4%
11:00	CLP Trade Balance			$317M
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD
12:00	PLN Central Bank FX Reserves			€103.4B
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a			52.4
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index			53.7
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change			-8.496M
19:00	USD Consumer Credit Change		$17.15B	$17.09B
19:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.1%
23:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance		-12%	-1%
23:50	JPY Bank Lending (YoY)			2.3%
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment			¥-162.2B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks			¥37.5B
23:50	JPY Current Account n.s.a.			¥1,594.8B
Thursday, Aug 08
05:00	EUR Industrial Output (MoM)			-2.8%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (MoM)			-2.2%
05:00	SGD Retail Sales (YoY)			-2.1%
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook			45.8
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current			44
06:00	EUR Trade Balance			€-0.01B
06:00	NOK Manufacturing Output		-0.8%	0.3%
07:00	CNY Exports (YoY)			-1.3%
07:00	CNY Exports (YoY) CNY			6.1%
07:00	CNY Trade Balance USD			$50.98B
07:00	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY			-0.4%
07:00	CNY Imports (YoY)			-7.3%
07:00	CNY Trade Balance CNY			345.18B
07:00	EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)			1.4%
07:00	HUF Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		4.0%	3.8%
07:00	HUF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		3.6%	3.4%
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€674M
07:00	CZK Unemployment Rate		2.6%	2.6%
07:00	EUR Foreign Trade Balance		€395.0M	€133.1M
08:00	EUR Economic Bulletin
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)			0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			-0.3%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate (MoM)			17.6%
09:00	HUF Budget Balance			-213.6B
10:00	CLP Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)		0.3%	0.0%
10:00	CLP Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM)			0%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
10:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.2%
10:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.1%
11:00	ZAR Manufacturing Production Index (YoY)			1%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.699M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average			211.5K
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			215K
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)			0%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
13:00	MXN Headline Inflation			0.06%
13:00	MXN Core Inflation			0.3%
13:00	MXN 12-Month Inflation			3.95%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$519.9B
14:00	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.4%	0.2%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change			65B
22:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			-1.2%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)			0.1%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized			2.2%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.6%
23:50	JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)			2.3%
Friday, Aug 09
24h	ZAR National Women’s Day
24h	SGD National Day
00:30	AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			2.7%
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)		0.3%	0.0%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
04:30	EUR Manufacturing Output (MoM)			-0.5%

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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