EUR/USD: Focus on US non-farm payrolls, today’s close pivotal

EUR/USD rejected near 1.11 in Asia, possibly due to risk aversion.
EUR/USD could drop below 1.10 if the US non-farm payrolls data blows past expectations.
Bull hammer reversal likely if the data misses estimates.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1075, representing 0.10% losses on the day, having hit a high of 1.1097 in the Asian session.

The pair faced rejection near 1.11, possibly due to risk off tone in the global markets. Asian equities are ccurrently down, tracking the overnight loses on the Wall Street, courtesy of President Trump’s re-escalation of trade tensions with China.

The risk-off tone will likely overshadow Eurozone producer price index and retail sales data scheduled for release at 09:00 GMT.

Later in the data, the focus would shift from trade tensions to the US monthly labor market report.

Non-farm payrolls due at 12:30 GMT

The data is forecast to show the US economy added 164K jobs in July, having added 224K jobs in June.

The jobless rate is forecasted to remain steady at 3.7%. The average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise 3.2% year-on-year in July, following a 3.1% rise in June

A better-than-expected US data will likely lift yields and push EUR/USD below 1.10.

A combination of escalating trade tensions and a below-forecast US payrolls figure could strengthen the case for additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future, leading to broad-based losses in the US Dollar. The EUR pairs may also take cues from President Trump's announcement on trade related matters with the European Union, scheduled at 13:45 EST.

Read: US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Look back, no one is gaining

Today’s close pivotal

EUR/USD charted a bullish hammer on Thursday, a warning of a potential bearish-to-bullish trend change.

The trend change, however, would be confirmed only if the pair closes today above 1.1096 (hammer candle’s high).

Technical levels

EUR/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.1075
Today Daily Change	-0.0010
Today Daily Change %	-0.09
Today daily open	1.1084

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.1193
Daily SMA50	1.1238
Daily SMA100	1.1236
Daily SMA200	1.1303

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.1096
Previous Daily Low	1.1027
Previous Weekly High	1.1226
Previous Weekly Low	1.1101
Previous Monthly High	1.1373
Previous Monthly Low	1.106
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.107
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.1053
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.1042
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.1
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.0972
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.1112
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.1139
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.1181

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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