Forex Today: Sees subdued Thanksgiving activity; eyes on Eurozone CPI


Amid lingering US-China trade uncertainty and Hong Kong unrest, the risk sentiment remained tepid in Black Friday’s quiet Asian trading. The Asian equities traded on the back foot, led by the declines in Hang Seng while the Wall Street futures also incurred moderate losses. The US dollar was on the defensive across its main competitors amid a lack of fresh catalysts and Thanksgiving holiday-mood dull trading. Gold, on the other hand, recovered some ground but remained below the 1460 level.

Across the fx board, thin trading ranges persisted, as markets refrained from placing any directional bets amid trade tensions and monthly closing. USD/JPY was flatlined around 109.50, having faced rejection at higher levels amid BOJ Governor Kuroda’s comments. The Aussie attempted a tepid bounce towards 0.6780 region while the Kiwi traded better bid near 0.6430 following upbeat ANZ New Zealand Consumer Confidence gauge. Meanwhile, USD/CAD traded firmer and neared 1.33 handle amid weaker oil prices.

Both the European currencies, EUR/USD and GBP/USD cheered broad-based US dollar weakness but the gains were limited heading into a busy EUR docket.

Main Topics in Asia

Japanese data dump, headline CPI: +0.8 PCT YoY (beats 0.4% expected/prior)

UK Business confidence in economy on the rise - The Times

Japan Economic Minister Nishimura: Will make continued efforts to support consumption

Japan FinMin Aso (reacts to Industrial Production data): Government wants to secure Japan’s recovery trend

Senior BOJ Official: BOJ’s current easy monetary policy is helping increase household income, asset prices

Fitch cuts its outlook on Japanese insurers to ‘Stable’

S. Korean TradeMin: S. Korea-Japan trade talks likely in December

BOK’s Lee: Today’s rate decision was not unanimous one member called for a rate cut

BOJ’s Kuroda: BOJ to guide policy with easy policy bias given the overseas downside risks

China protests US law supporting Hong Kong but signals hope for trade deal - WSJ

Key Focus Ahead

We have a relatively busy Friday’s EUR calendar, in light of the Thanksgiving and Black Friday light trading anticipated. The Retail Sales and Employment data is due out of Germany at 0700 GMT and 0855 GMT respectively while a slew of minority reports will be published from the UK at 0930 GMT. The key event of note in Europe remains the Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Jobless Rate data, dropping in at 1000 GMT. Also, in focus remains the Indian growth numbers due at 1200 GMT, which will be closely eyed by the INR markets.

The Canadian Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production data will headline a holiday-subdued NA session, as US traders will be operating half time. Markets also await fresh developments on the US-China trade front, as Hong Kong is likely to see large-scale protest rallies, this time on social media, this weekend.

EUR/USD trades near 1.10, eyes monthly loss

EUR/USD is on track to end November on a negative note. November's drop has poured cold water over the optimism generated by October's sharp rally. The EUR may find love if the German data beats estimates. 

GBP/USD struggles to remain strong as UK media criticizes PM Johnson

GBP/USD stays a little changed around one week high above 1.2900. The quote rallied Thursday after YouGov’s MRP indicator signaled Tory lead.

Key economic data on Black Friday – Rabobank

The Rabobank Research Team offers a brief preview of the key economic events due on the cards this Black Friday.

Canadian PM Trudeau, Mexico representative to meet on NAFTA Friday

Latest headlines are crossing the wires, via Reuters, citing Canada's Prime Minister (PM) Trudeau and Mexican Undersecretary of Foreign Relations Jesus Seade will meet on Friday.

OPEC, OPEC and more OPEC will be what oil markets will be all about next week

A crucial meeting of the OPEC+ alliance will take place in Vienna on 5–6 December and the price of oil depends on it. 

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Nov 28
24h
 
 
Friday, Nov 29
07:00
 
0.0%
0.1%
07:00
 
1.1%
3.4%
08:00
 
95.0
94.7
08:55
 
5%
5%
08:55
 
5K
6K
09:30
 
 
£4.6B
09:30
 
£0.900B
£0.828B
09:30
 
65.500K
65.919K
09:30
 
 
4%
09:30
 
0.5%
0.7%
10:00
 
 
6,515.5B
10:00
 
7.5%
7.5%
10:00
 
0.9%
0.7%
10:00
 
1.2%
1.1%
11:30
 
 
$448.25B
12:00
 
 
-5.2%
12:00
 
4.7%
5.0%
13:30
 
1.2%
0.0%
13:30
 
0.0%
-0.1%
13:30
 
1.2%
3.7%
13:30
 
0.1%
0.1%
17:30
 
 
Saturday, Nov 30
02:00
 
53.6
52.8
02:00
 
49.5
49.3
Sunday, Dec 01
21:45
 
0.2%
1.6%

 

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