Forex Today: Markets quiet down as Christmas approaches
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, December 24:
Major currency pairs fluctuate in tight ranges early Tuesday as trading conditions thin out. Stock and bond markets in the US will close early on Christmas Eve and will remain closed on Christmas Day on Wednesday. The economic calendar will not feature any data releases until Thursday.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.07% | 1.20% | 1.88% | 0.86% | 1.94% | 2.27% | 0.53% | |
| EUR | -1.07% | 0.13% | 0.80% | -0.20% | 0.86% | 1.17% | -0.53% | |
| GBP | -1.20% | -0.13% | 0.69% | -0.31% | 0.73% | 1.06% | -0.65% | |
| JPY | -1.88% | -0.80% | -0.69% | -1.00% | 0.09% | 0.41% | -1.27% | |
| CAD | -0.86% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 1.00% | 1.07% | 1.39% | -0.32% | |
| AUD | -1.94% | -0.86% | -0.73% | -0.09% | -1.07% | 0.33% | -1.37% | |
| NZD | -2.27% | -1.17% | -1.06% | -0.41% | -1.39% | -0.33% | -1.69% | |
| CHF | -0.53% | 0.53% | 0.65% | 1.27% | 0.32% | 1.37% | 1.69% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The data from the US showed on Tuesday that the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined to 104.7 in December from 112.8 (revised from 111.7) in November. In the meantime, Durable Goods Orders declined by 1.1% on a monthly basis in November, while New Home Sales increased by 5.9%. The US Dollar (USD) struggled to gather strength following the mixed data releases but the USD Index managed to register small gains on Monday.
The Bank of Japan noted in its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes that gradual rate hikes will be possible if inflation trends align with their expectations. According to the publication, one member suggested a gradual rate hike to 1.0% by the second half of fiscal 2025 for better economic assessment. After rising nearly 0.5% on Monday, USD/JPY fluctuates in a tight range slightly above 157.00 in the European morning on Tuesday.
EUR/USD edged higher during the European trading hours on Monday but failed to preserve its recovery momentum in the second half of the day. The pair seems to have entered a consolidation phase at around 1.0400 in the early European session on Tuesday.
GBP/USD closed marginally lower on Monday following a recovery attempt toward 1.2600. The pair moves up and down in a narrow band below 1.2550 on Tuesday.
Gold edged lower as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield continued to stretch higher on Monday. XAU/USD holds steady near $2,620 in the European morning.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
