|

Forex Today: Eyes on European inflation data, US ADP report

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, August 31:

Markets remain relatively muted mid-week as investors await the inflation data from the euro area. In the second half of the day, the ADP's new employment report for the private sector will be featured in the US economic docket. In the early European morning, US stock index futures are up more than 0.5% and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady at around 3.1%. After having closed the second straight day virtually unchanged on Tuesday, the US Dollar Index continues to move sideways below 109.00.

ADP Jobs Preview: Three reasons to expect the data to drive the dollar higher.

Earlier in the day, the data from China showed that the NBS Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 49.4 in August from 49 in July. Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 52.6, bettering the market expectation of 52.2. Despite the upbeat data, the Shanghai Composite Index was last seen losing nearly 1% on a daily basis. Investors grow increasingly concerned over a long-lasting slowdown in the Chinese economy after authorities decided to impose tougher coronavirus-related restrictions in cities including Shenzen, Chengdu and Dalian.

EUR/USD managed to hold above parity and registered small daily gains on Tuesday. The Annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the euro area is expected to rise to 9% in August's flash estimate from 7.9% in July. Several European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers voiced their willingness to consider a 75 basis points rate hike in September and helped the shared currency stay resilient against its rivals. Meanwhile, with the Nord Stream pipeline shutting down for maintenance for three days, gas flows to Europe got fully halted and natural gas futures rose as much as 5% in the European morning. As of writing, EUR/USD was trading modestly higher on the day at 1.0020.

Eurozone Inflation Preview: Hotter HICP to cement a 75 bps ECB hike next week.

With crude oil prices falling nearly 5% on Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair gathered bullish momentum and climbed to the 1.3100 area before going into a consolidation phase below that level on Wednesday. Statistics Canada will release the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data later in the session, which is expected to show that the Canadian economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.5% in the second quarter.

GBP/USD registered its lowest daily close since March 2020 at 1.1655 on Tuesday. The pair erased a portion of its daily losses early Wednesday but it continues to trade below 1.1700.

USD/JPY started to stretch lower following Tuesday's failed attempt to break above 139.00. The pair trades in negative territory below 138.50 in the European morning. "Bank of Japan decided to maintain its easy policy bias at July meeting, hope to discuss at September policy meeting whether it should continue doing so based on data available at the time," BOJ monetary policy board member Junko Nakagawa said earlier in the day.

Gold lost nearly 0.8% on Tuesday as the 10-year US T-bond yield held comfortably above 3%. XAU/USD is having a tough time reversing its direction and was last seen posting small daily losses at around $1,720.

Bitcoin failed to build on Monday's gains and lost more than 2% on Tuesday. Nevertheless, BTC/USD holds above $20,000 so far on Wednesday. Despite having closed in the red on Tuesday, Ethereum regathered its bullish momentum and was last seen rising nearly 4% on the day near $1,600.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).