Forex Today: Choppy start to the week ahead of German inflation and US PMI data
Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 1:
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand at the beginning of the third quarter as investors adjust their positions ahead of this week's key macroeconomic events and data releases. Later in the session, preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June from Germany will be watched closely by investors. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June and Construction Spending data for May will be featured in the US economic calendar.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.45% | -0.23% | 0.16% | 0.00% | -0.08% | -0.08% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.45% | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.25% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | 0.01% | 0.29% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.26% | |
| JPY | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.29% | -0.15% | -0.18% | -0.24% | -0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | -0.15% | -0.16% | 0.15% | -0.05% | -0.09% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | -0.25% | -0.26% | 0.18% | 0.05% | -0.20% | 0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | -0.05% | -0.07% | 0.24% | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.21% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.26% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.07% | -0.21% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.6% on a yearly basis in May. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index remained unchanged. These readings matched analysts' estimates and the USD Index closed the last trading day of the second quarter in negative territory on Friday. Early Monday, the USD Index continues to push lower and was last seen fluctuating deep in negative territory near 105.50. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady at around 4.4% and US stock index futures gain between 0.25% and 0.4% in the early European session.
France held the first round of parliamentary election on Sunday. Exit polls showed that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won around 34% of the vote, ahead of the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance, which are projected to receive 29% and 20.5%-23% of the vote, respectively, according to Reuters. The second round of election will take place on July 7. EUR/USD started the week on a bullish note and was last seen gaining about 0.5% on the day at 1.0770.
GBP/USD benefits from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and rises toward 1.2700 after closing the previous week virtually unchanged.
AUD/USD started the week with a bullish gap but struggled to gather momentum. After edging higher toward 0.6700, AUD/USD lost its traction and was last seen trading flat on the day at around 0.6670.
USD/JPY fluctuates in a tight range near 161.00 in the European morning on Monday. On Friday, the pair touched a multi-decade high near 161.30 but retreated afterward, with investors refraining from betting on further Japanese Yen weakness amid risk of intervention.
Economic Indicator
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Last release: Mon Jun 03, 2024 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 48.7
Consensus: 49.6
Previous: 49.2
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
