Forex Today: Aussie ignores Aus jobs & China data, Eyes on UK retail sales

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Asia today cheered some positive news from the Aus docket, lifting the AUD/USD pair to 0.7870 levels, before reversing sharply on mixed Chinese data dump, with the Q3 GDP figures falling a tad short on expectations. The Kiwi too followed suit and tested 0.71 handle, eagerly awaiting the announcement on the new government. Meanwhile, both the EUR and GBP regained poise amid stalled USD recovery, as sentiment soured towards Asia close amid mixed equities and weaker oil prices.

Main topics in Asia

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥670.2B above expectations (¥559.8B) in September

North Korea could stage an unimaginable strike on the US

A report from Yonhap (South Korean Press) says North Korea could stage an unimaginable strike on the US.

UK PM Theresa May urged to walk out if the EU wont talk trade - Telegraph

The UK’s newspaper, Telegraph, published a story earlier on the day, citing that the UK PM Theresa May urged to walk out if the EU agree on trade talks.

Australia full-time job growth slows, unemployment rate drops in September

The seasonally adjusted data released this Thursday showed the Australian economy added 19.8K jobs in September, beating the estimated rise of 15.0K.

China Q3 GDP y/y a tad weaker, but meets estimates

China's YoY GDP figures for the third quarter of 2017 came at +6.8% vs +6.8% exp and 6.9% previous, with the QoQ reading for Q3 coming in at +1.7% vs +1.7% exp and +1.8% (revised up from 1.7%) last.

Key Focus ahead

Looking ahead, the EUR, GBP traders brace for the critical UK retail sales data, which will have a major impact on Cable and EUR/GBP, as it is the only macro news up for release from the EUR calendar data. From the US docket, the weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index will remain in focus. However, the main event to watch out today is the Brexit/EU Summit for fresh developments on the Brexit negotiations.

GBP/USD - Will UK retail sales help defend 50-day MA ahead of Brexit summit?

GBP/USD rebounded from the 50-day moving average on Wednesday, although the uptick ran out of steam in Asia at a high of 1.3228.

EUR/USD headed back towards 1.1735/30 support?

Having failed to sustain at higher levels, the EUR/USD pair trimmed gains to test the 1.18 handle amid broad based US dollar recovery in sync with Treasury yields.

Brexit/ EU Summit: What to expect? - HSBC

HSBC analysts offer their thoughts on what to expect from the 2-day EU Summit starting today, with the agenda mainly centered on the Brexit negotiations.

NZ First to make announcements today? - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ noted that today is supposedly the day that NZ First will make an announcement on the formation of the next government.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Oct 19
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)	7		8 Revised from 7
01:00	KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision	1.25%		1.25%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
02:00	CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	6.8%	6.8%	6.9%
02:00	CNY NBS Press Conference
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)	6.6%	6.2%	6.0%
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)	10.3%	10.2%	10.1%
04:00	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate		5%	5%
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
04:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)	4.7%		4.7%
06:00	CHF Trade Balance		2,470M	2,173M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			16,667M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			14,494M
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			13.1%
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate		6%	6%
08:00	EUR Deadline to confirm if Catalonia declared the Independence
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		2.4%	2.8%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.1%	1.0%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	1.0%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		2.1%	2.4%
08:30	HKD Unemployment rate			3.1%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.36%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			0.026%
08:50	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			2.804%
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction			1.161%
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.633B
n/a	EUR European Council meeting
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		240K	243K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.900M	1.889M
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		22.0	23.8
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			3
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$423.3B
13:30	USD Fed's George Speech
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		59B	87B
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate		2.5%	2.5%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			3.2%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			0.3%
21:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			5.8%
Friday, Oct 20
24h	EUR European Council meeting
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			2.8%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			23
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.2%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.9%	2.6%
06:35	JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
07:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€25.1B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€32.5B
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing			£5.093B
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$398.79B
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			0.11%
n/a	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.5%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.3%	0.2%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.6%	1.4%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)			0.9%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			0%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.3%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			3.5%
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.30M	5.35M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		-1.0%	-1.7%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			743
18:00	USD FOMC Member Mester speech
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$200.1K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			417.1K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$140.5K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£15.5K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-101.4K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€98.1K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$69.2K
23:15	USD Fed's Yellen Speech

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD climbs toward 0.7000 after strong China data dump

AUD/USD attracts follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Monday, extending last week's recovery toward 0.7000 in Monday's Asian trading. Strong Chniese Q3 GDP and activity data for September strengthen the pair's advance, following RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent's hawkish remarks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ, subdued USD

USD/JPY remains defensive near 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, as the US Dollar remains depressed near a two-week low amid the recent decline in US bond yields. Furthermore, looming intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen and weigh on the pair amid BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish remarks. However, Fed rate-hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties could limit USD losses and the major.

Gold drops to daily lows below $4,150

Gold builds on Friday’s retracement and slips back below the $4,150 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The better tone in the US Dollar and a decent bounce in US Treasury yields across the curve keep the yellow metal under pressure for now.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP extend recovery despite ETFs outflows

Bitcoin edges higher above $82,000, building strong structural support despite roughly $229 million in ETF outflows last week. Ethereum recovers above $2,400 as bulls strive to regain trend control, backed by a subtle recovery in momentum indicators.

Higher than expected inflation shakes markets: What to prepare for?

US CPI report came in stronger than expected, lifting the probability of a December rate hike higher once again. Even though Fed Chair Warsh reinforced expectations of a hold for the October’s meeting, markets now face a two-step event: a likely pause on October 28, followed by an interest rate hike on December 9.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.