EUR/USD remains vulnerable amid EU election uncertainty and Fed's outcome


  • EUR/USD stays on the back foot near 1.0720 as the European Union’s political uncertainty weakens the Euro’s appeal.
  • The ECB refuses to commit to a specific interest-rate trajectory.
  • The US Dollar’s appeal remains firm ahead of the Fed’s decision and the US CPI report.

EUR/USD shows weakness near the immediate support of 1.0720 in Tuesday’s American session. The major currency pair remains on the back foot as the Euro shifted into a bearish trajectory following French President Emmanuel Macron’s unprecedented decision to dissolve parliament and call for a snap election, which spooked political stability.

Macron’s decision to call for a snap election came after exit polls for EU parliamentary elections showed that seats won by Jordan Bardella-led-far-right National Rally came in at 32%-33%, more than twice the votes secured by Macron’s Centrist alliance.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers' cautious approach to the interest rate outlook also fails to uplift the Euro. ECB policymakers worry that progress in inflation towards the bank’s target could stall as wage growth appears to be stubborn. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that last week’s rate-cut move doesn’t commit to any linear declining path. "There might be periods where we hold rates again,” Lagarde said, according to Reuters.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD falls further as US Dollar rises with focus on US CPI and Fed policy

  • EUR/USD declines to near 1.0720 as traders focus on the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. 
  • Annual core inflation, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to have decelerated to 3.5% from April’s reading of 3.6%. In the same period, the headline inflation is expected to have grown steadily by 3.4%. While monthly headline inflation is forecasted to have grown at a slower pace of 0.1% from the former release of 0.3%, the core CPI is estimated to have maintained a steady growth rate of 0.3%. The US CPI report will indicate whether price pressures are on course to return to the desired rate of 2%. 
  • Meanwhile, the Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh consecutive time. Therefore, investors will pay more attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the dot plot, which will indicate where policymakers see the federal fund rate heading. The CME FedWatch tool shows that 30-day Fed Fund Rate pricing data suggest only one rate-cut move this year, which could be announced either in the November or December meeting.
  • Fed policymakers said they want to be sure about sustained progress in the disinflation process before considering rate cuts. They have already warned that premature rate cuts could revamp price pressures again. Increasing chances that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate framework for a longer period has improved the US Dollar’s appeal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds gains above the crucial support of 105.00.

EUR/USD Price Today:

Euro PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

  EUR USD GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
EUR   -0.37% -0.25% -0.24% -0.20% -0.15% -0.30% -0.12%
USD 0.37%   0.10% 0.13% 0.15% 0.19% 0.06% 0.23%
GBP 0.25% -0.10%   0.00% 0.04% 0.08% -0.06% 0.08%
JPY 0.24% -0.13% 0.00%   0.03% 0.05% -0.09% 0.07%
CAD 0.20% -0.15% -0.04% -0.03%   0.04% -0.10% 0.04%
AUD 0.15% -0.19% -0.08% -0.05% -0.04%   -0.14% 0.00%
NZD 0.30% -0.06% 0.06% 0.09% 0.10% 0.14%   0.15%
CHF 0.12% -0.23% -0.08% -0.07% -0.04% 0.00% -0.15%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD declines toward upward-sloping border of triangle

EUR/USD extends its losing streak for the third trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair weakened after failing to hold the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle formation, suggesting that the overall trend has turned bearish. The shared currency pair has now returned inside the triangle formation and is expected to find support at 1.0636, near the upward-sloping order of the chart pattern plotted from 3 October 2023 low at 1.0448.

The long-term outlook of the shared currency pair has also turned negative as prices dropped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0800.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls sharply to 40.00. A decisive break below this level would trigger bearish momentum.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Next release: Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 3.4%

Previous: 3.4%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD tumbles further and hit new YTD lows near 1.0580

EUR/USD tumbles further and hit new YTD lows near 1.0580

The Greenback now resumes its uptrend and advance to new highs. forcing EUR/USD to abandon its initial constructive stance and reach new yearly lows in the 1.0580 region on Wednesday.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD accelerates its losses below 1.2700

GBP/USD accelerates its losses below 1.2700

GBP/USD breaks below the 1.2700 support on the back of the sudden resurgence of buying interest in the US Dollar following US CPI data and some hawkish remarks from the Fed's Logan.

GBP/USD News
Gold extends slide to fresh two-month low

Gold extends slide to fresh two-month low

After shedding some ground throughout the first half of the day, the US Dollar is back in fashion. XAU/USD trades at its lowest in two months in the $2,580 region and is technically poised to extend its slump.

Gold News
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Chances of pullback increase as miner selling ramps up

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Chances of pullback increase as miner selling ramps up

Bitcoin (BTC) price extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, trading slightly down at around $87,600 after a 30% surge since November 5 pushed BTC to a new all-time high at $89,940.

Read more
Trump vs CPI

Trump vs CPI

US CPI for October was exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate of CPI rose to 2.6% YoY from 2.4% YoY in September. The core rate remained steady at 3.3%. The detail of the report shows that the shelter index rose by 0.4% on the month, which accounted for 50% of the increase in all items on a monthly basis. 

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures