- EUR/USD reverses intraday losses on softer-than-expected US PCE inflation report for August.
- Flash French CPI (EU norm) and Spain's HICP fell below 2% year-on-year in September.
- Softer-than-expected inflation data from France and Spain has prompted ECB rate cut bets in October.
EUR/USD recovers the majority of its intraday losses and returns above 1.1150 in Friday’s New York session. The major currency pair pares losses as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after the release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for August, which indicated that inflation remains on track to return to bank's target of 2%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, retreats to near 100.40 and declines toward the key support of 100.20. The report showed that the annual PCE inflation grew by 2.2%, slower than estimates of 2.3% and July's print of 2.5%. The core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose expectedly by 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in June. Month-on-month inflation data grew by 0.1%.
Signs of further slowdown in inflationary pressures would prompt market expectations for the Fed to reduce interest rates further in the last quarter of this year. Currently, financial markets seem to be confident that the Fed will cut interest rates for the second straight time in November as inflation is on track to return to the bank’s target of 2% and policymakers are concerned over growing risks to labor demand. However, traders remain equally split over the potential rate cut size between 25 and 50 bps, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Next week, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Monday, a slew of labor market data, and the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to project the next move in the US Dollar.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD pares losses despite soft French, Spain inflation weighs on Euro
- EUR/USD pares some losses in European trading hours as the US Dollar falls back. While the Euro's (EUR) performance against other major peers remains weak after the release of the flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) (EU Norm) and the Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data showed that price pressures grew at a slower-than-expected pace in September.
- A sharp deceleration in French and Spanish inflationary pressures has prompted market expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates again in the October meeting. This would be the third interest rate cut by the ECB in its current policy-easing cycle, which started in June. The ECB reduced interest rates again in September after leaving them unchanged in July.
- Annual CPI in France grew at a pace of 1.5%, sharply lower than estimates of 1.9% and the former release of 2.2%. On month, price pressures deflated at a robust pace of 1.2%, faster than expectations of 0.8%. In Spain, the annual HICP rose by 1.7%, slower than estimates of 1.9% and from 2.4% in August. On month, the HICP declined by 0.1%, which was expected to remain flat.
- Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary German and Eurozone HICP data for September, which will be published on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.
EUR | USD | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUR | -0.02% | 0.09% | -1.55% | 0.05% | -0.48% | -0.54% | -0.49% | |
USD | 0.02% | 0.10% | -1.54% | 0.10% | -0.48% | -0.52% | -0.50% | |
GBP | -0.09% | -0.10% | -1.62% | -0.03% | -0.57% | -0.61% | -0.58% | |
JPY | 1.55% | 1.54% | 1.62% | 1.65% | 1.09% | 1.04% | 1.10% | |
CAD | -0.05% | -0.10% | 0.03% | -1.65% | -0.59% | -0.60% | -0.57% | |
AUD | 0.48% | 0.48% | 0.57% | -1.09% | 0.59% | -0.03% | -0.01% | |
NZD | 0.54% | 0.52% | 0.61% | -1.04% | 0.60% | 0.03% | 0.03% | |
CHF | 0.49% | 0.50% | 0.58% | -1.10% | 0.57% | 0.00% | -0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD bounces back to near 1.1200
EUR/USD has consolidated in a 100-pip range since Tuesday as investors look for fresh Fed-ECB interest rate cues. The major currency pair remains firm as it holds the breakout of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a daily time frame near the psychological support of 1.1000.
The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1110 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges lower below 60.00, suggesting momentum is weakening.
Looking up, a decisive break above the round-level resistance of 1.1200 will result in further appreciation toward the July 2023 high of 1.1276. On the downside, the psychological level of 1.1000 and the July 17 high near 1.0950 will be major support zones.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD corrects sharply toward 1.0950 ahead of US NFP, Powell
EUR/USD is extending its correction toward 1.0950 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar has come up for air after the trade war and recession fears-led sell-off, weighing on the pair. Traders look to the US NFP report and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh directives.

GBP/USD remains heavy near 1.3000, US NFP data awaited
GBP/USD is battling 1.3000, under heavy selling pressure in European trading on Friday. Traders resort to profit-taking on their US Dollar short positiions, re-adjusting ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data and Fed Chair Powell speech.

Gold price sticks to negative bias around $3,100; bears seem non-committed ahead of US NFP report
Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the downside potential seems limited. Trump’s tariffs-inspired risk-off mood might continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and also contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.

Nonfarm Payrolls forecast: US jobs growth set to slow in March amid growing worries over US tariffs
Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise by 135K in March, following a 151K gain reported in February. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. US labor data could impact the Fed’s interest rate path, potentially affecting the US Dollar's price action.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.

The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.