EUR/USD: It’s Germany’s turn to vote – OCBC

Chancellor Scholz had called for a vote of confidence on Wed and the Bundestag will vote later today. To survive the vote, Scholz would need to receive the support of an absolute majority of 367 votes. EUR was last at 1.0513 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note

Risks are modestly skewed to the upside

“In the event, Scholz fails, then Germany is likely to make way for elections on 23 Feb 2025. Far-right AfD is calling for Germany to leave the European Union, the EUR and Paris climate deal as the party prepares for early elections in Feb-2025. The concern here is the explicit language to quit EU unlike its manifesto ahead of the European parliament elections previously in Jun-2024.”

“EUR was a touch firmer, despite Moody’s downgrade of French rating. President Macron has appointed François Bayrou as the new PM of France. The far-left party La France Insoumise has announced it will launch a no-confidence vote to bring down PM Bayrou while other parties appear less aggressive and have laid down conditions for their support. Ongoing political uncertainties in France, Germany may weigh on EUR but like we had flagged, these are already known unknowns and for EUR to push lower, a new catalyst is required (i.e. a hawkish Fed, etc.).”

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart is intact while RSI rose. Risks are modestly skewed to the upside. Resistance here at 1.0540 (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Oct high to Nov low), 1.0610 and 1.0670 (38.2% fibo). Support at 1.0460, 1.0410 levels.