EUR/USD: Downside back in play ahead of US data?


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The EUR/USD pair stalled its relief-rally just below the key resistance located near 5-DMA at 1.1928 levels, as attention turns towards the crucial US retail sales and industrial production data for the next direction.

EUR/USD supported at 1.1900 in Asia                                      

The spot is seen consolidating the solid bounce from near 1.1840 levels, as the bulls remain in a wait and see mode, in the wake of the latest North Korea missile launch news and rising US rate hike expectations.

Thursday’s rise in the US CPI figures lifted the Dec Fed rate hike expectations well above 50%, as reflected by the CME Fed Watch tool, which keep the recovery in EUR/USD limited.

Meanwhile, the funding currency Euro finds some support from the persisting risk-off trades, fuelled by the latest North Korea missile launch test, allowing the pair to keep the 1.19 handle.

However, it remains to be seen that for how long the major can sustain above 1.19 handle, as the upcoming US macro data releases could further boost the bets for a Dec Fed rate hike and in turn, send the US dollar index higher towards 92.50 levels.

EUR/USD Technical Set-up  

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained: “In the 4 hours chart, the price is developing below its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shortest about to cross the largest to the downside and both around 1.1920/30 providing a dynamic resistance zone. In the same chart, technical indicators have bounced within bearish territory, but remain well below their mid-lines. The pair would need to surpass the mentioned 1.1920/30 region to be able to regain some upward potential, and approach the 1.2000 figure. Support levels: 1.1860 1.1825 1.1795 Resistance levels: 1.1930 1.1965 1.2000.”

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