Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the key US retail sales.
"We expect a 0.3% m-o-m increase in core (“control”) retail sales for August (Consensus: 0.2%). Core retail sales increased solidly in July with upward revisions to prior months, suggesting strong momentum going into Q3. We think this trend will continue in August, as strong consumer fundamentals so far have likely been supportive of consumer spending.
Moreover, the ISM non-manufacturing survey for August indicated broad-based strength, suggesting healthy domestic demand with many businesses indicating a favorable outlook. For non-core components, increases in retail gasoline prices may have boosted the nominal sales at gasoline stations. However, it is likely retail auto sales declined.
August total light vehicle sales slowed sharply from the pace in July with a likely decline in the share of vehicles sold to consumers. Excluding sales of autos and auto parts, we forecast an increase of 0.6% (Consensus: 0.5%). Altogether, we expect a decent 0.3% increase in headline retail sales (Consensus: 0.1%)."
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