DXY and EUR/USD are pretty stuck in ranges – Societe Generale

Today’s BoJ rate hike is a step on the road to normalization, consistent with a less oversold Japanese Yen (JPY). The Dollar Index (DXY) seeing its biggest two-week since August, is consistent with the recent phase of dollar strength losing momentum. But range-trading is more likely than a significant downtrend, for now, Societe Genrale’s FX expert Kit Juckes notes.

USD is up against the GBP, down against the rest

“The third full week of 2025 is ending and so far, the pound is the weakest of the G10 currencies while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are fighting it out for top place. The USD is up against the pound, down against the rest, and the DXY is set to fall for a second week in a row for the first time since the latest rally kicked off at the end of September.”

“It’s the biggest two-week fall since August and the before that, the biggest since 2023. Finally, this fall has also helped move the Dollar Index loser to where relative rates might suggest it should be – current ‘fair value’ on that basis is around 104.5.”

“DXY and EUR/USD are pretty stuck in ranges, which I’ll define as 99 to 110 for the DXY, consistent with EUR/USD in a 1-1.12 range, until something changes dramatically. Indeed, a lot has to change before we get back to EUR/USD 1.10. This morning’s marginally better PMIs were welcome, but don’t count as a game-changer.”