|

AUD/USD drops further towards 0.7700 on mixed China data dump

  • AUD/USD fails to keep the corrective pullback from the day’s low.
  • China Q1 GDP, Industrial Production came in weaker-than-expected but Retail Sales crosses forecast and prior.
  • Market sentiment dwindles over geopolitical risks, consolidation after the previous day’s upbeat performance.

AUD/USD paid a little heed to China’s top-tier data releases on early Friday as the aussie pair refreshes intraday low around 0.7720, down 0.33% on a day. The reason could be traced from the mixed data and challenges to the risk-on mood.

China’s Q1 GDP eases below 1.5% forecast and 2.6% prior to 0.6% YoY whereas the Industrial Production weakened to 14.1% versus 17.2% expected and 35.1% previous readouts in March. However, Retail Sales improved from 28.0% market consensus and 33.8% previous to 34.2% during the previous month.

Read: China’s GDP sees a record expansion of 18.3% YoY in Q4 2020 vs 18.9% expected, AUD/USD unfazed

Not only the mixed data from the key customer but downbeat sentiment also weigh on the AUD/USD prices by the press time.

Among the main problems, US President Joe Biden’s defense to the American sanctions on Russia over political interference and hacking gain major attention. Additionally, today’s talks between the leaders of the US and Japan in Washington, over China, 5G and other relief programs, also weigh on the sentiment as the West gathers support to battle the dragon nation.

It should also be noted that Bloomberg’s news suggesting an extended ban over the use of Johnson & Johnson’s covid vaccine by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) exert additional downside pressure on the market sentiment. Even if the same can cause limited damage to the US and the UK economy, Reuters' poll suggests the delay in the vaccinations as the biggest risk to the Eurozone economy.

On the positive side, no new covid cases from Australia’s Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) join hopes of faster economic recovery in America and Britain, backed by faster vaccinations, to back the optimists.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses after refreshing the record top the previous day whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield differs from Thursday’s heavy slump to the one-month low by the press time.

Read: S&P 500 Futures step back from record top as US Treasury yields pare weekly loss

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the Chinese data, AUD/USD traders will rely on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse ahead of the US consumer sentiment figures. Considering the shift in the market’s mood, coupled with mixed data from China, the aussie pair may remain depressed.

Technical analysis

A downside break of 50-day SMA around 0.7720 should recall the sub-0.7700 area on the chart. Until then, AUD/USD bulls can keep attacking the 0.7760-65 resistance area before targeting the 0.7800 threshold, needless to mention the previous month’s peak surrounding 0.7850.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price0.7735
Today Daily Change-17 pips
Today Daily Change %-0.22%
Today daily open0.7752
 
Trends
Daily SMA200.7645
Daily SMA500.7721
Daily SMA1000.7668
Daily SMA2000.7425
 
Levels
Previous Daily High0.7762
Previous Daily Low0.7705
Previous Weekly High0.7678
Previous Weekly Low0.7588
Previous Monthly High0.785
Previous Monthly Low0.7562
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%0.774
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%0.7727
Daily Pivot Point S10.7718
Daily Pivot Point S20.7683
Daily Pivot Point S30.7661
Daily Pivot Point R10.7775
Daily Pivot Point R20.7797
Daily Pivot Point R30.7832

Author

Anil Panchal

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

More from Anil Panchal
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3400 despite soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400 in European trading on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, failing to deter the British Pound's rebound from weekly troughs. However, the pair's further upside could be limited by ongoing Mideast tensions and sustained US Dollar demand as a haven.

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB tone

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid escalating military tensions and recent retaliatory airstrikes between the US and Iran.

Gold ease from two-week top as energy-driven inflation fears bolster Fed hike bets

Gold retreats slightly from a two-week high touched earlier this Wednesday, albeit it retains an intraday bullish bias through the first half of the European session. Hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations undermine the US Dollar, which is seen supporting the commodity. In fact, top negotiators for Iran and the US signaled that they have not walked away from talks.

Cardano: Short-term recovery lacks retail support

Cardano price edges lower after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $1.770 capped two consecutive days of recovery seen earlier this week. ADA futures point to waning retail traction as Open Interest and trading volume decline amid elevated long liquidations. The technical outlook for ADA is bearish, as momentum remains subdued below a resistance trendline near $0.1782.

Chip stocks are more volatile than Oil

I continue to start the day by looking at these two charts: US crude & Kospi. The former is extending gains, trading above $86 per barrel for WTI and $92 per barrel for Brent, while the Kospi is up more than 4.5%, led higher by Korean chipmakers following a similar jump in VanEck's Semiconductor ETF yesterday.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.