• Apple has recently lost its status as the world's most valuable company to Saudi Aramco.
  • The tech giant faces supply chain headwinds, margin shrinkage and demand destruction in 2023.
  • AAPL stock is down 20% year-to-date and likely has not bottomed.

Apple’s (AAPL) last quarterly earnings report on April 28 was solid, with earnings and revenue both beating consensus analyst forecasts. However, Apple management was downbeat on the conference call, highlighting growing problems related to supply chain issues and inflationary headwinds. We believe the pandemic and associated monetary stimulus have resulted in a generational pulling forward of demand, leading to a risk of a 2023 onwards multi-year low in iPhone demand.

Also readTesla Stock Deep Dive: Price target at $400 on China headwinds, margin compression, lower deliveries

New iPhone models will not have the same 5G kicker that the iPhone 13 benefited from and are likely to have noticeably higher sticker prices. 78% of Apple iPhone users are under the age of 35, exactly the cohort who will see disposable incomes hurt most by inflation. This age cohort has fewer savings to fall back on and less of an asset base to cushion any inflationary pressure. The caveat is that this age group spends a much larger portion of its income on discretionary purchases in good economic environments due to a lower level of rent and mortgage payments. 

For now, incomes remain strong in the face of rising inflation and a tight labor market, but economies are reaching the peak of this cycle in our view. With stock markets being forward-looking, we are taking a downbeat view of 2023 earnings and so a reduced price target versus our peers. We also take note of recent weakness in the Chinese smartphone market with data on May 16 showing shipments down 40.5% annually. China represents 20% of Apple’s revenue, but operating margins from China are significantly higher than in other regions for Apple. 

We expect 2022 to remain on track for forecasts, but model 2023 with revenues falling 10% and margin compression due to rising input costs and inflationary pressures continuing. For 2024, we see revenues and margins both flat. 

This leads us to a price target of $100 based on traditional P/E, EV/EBITDA and intrinsic valuation methods which we go through in detail below. 

Apple overview

Apple manufacturers and designs consumer technology products. The most noteworthy are the iPhone and iPad. The company also manufactures its smartwatch, the Apple Watch, and operates on a global basis. Apple was founded in 1977 in California by Steve Jobs, Ronald Wayne and Steve Wozniak. Apple initially focused on the PC market before launching and revolutionizing the personal music market with the introduction of the iPod in 2001. This essentially launched the music streaming market, and Apple iTunes was the largest music store in the world but finally succumbed to the rise of streaming in 2019. Apple stock trades under the ticker AAPL

Apple geographical segmentation

Annual Business Line by Segment in Millions of U.S. Dollars            
    2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Period End Date 25-Sep-2021  26-Sep-2020  28-Sep-2019  29-Sep-2018  30-Sep-2017 
Americas        42% 45% 45% 42% 42%
Operating Margin (%) 34.82% 30.29% 30.02% 31.10% 31.76%
Europe        24% 25% 23% 24% 24%
Operating Margin (%) 36.40% 32.30% 31.84% 31.97% 30.06%
Greater China       19% 15% 17% 20% 20%
Operating Margin (%) 41.69% 37.86% 37.16% 38.01% 38.05%
Japan        7.8% 7.8% 8.3% 8.2% 7.7%
Operating Margin (%) 44.93% 43.32% 43.56% 43.71% 45.66%
Rest of Asia Pacific        7.2% 7.1% 6.8% 6.6% 6.6%
Operating Margin (%) 37.25% 34.75% 34.04% 35.51% 34.90%

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

We can see clearly how Asia and China provide the highest margin return for Apple, a fact we have already highlighted concerns over. Below we can see just how dominant the iPhone is to revenue generation, representing over 50% of revenue currently. Apple has chosen in the past to prioritize chips for iPhone production to the detriment of iPad production. 

Apple revenue by product

      HISTORICAL (ACTUALS)   FORECAST (MEAN)    
  FY Sep-19 FY Sep-20 FY Sep-21 % FY Sep-22 FY Sep-23 FY Sep-24
INCOME STATEMENT              
REVENUE 260,174 274,515 365,817   394,010 416,241 436,301
               
        IPAD 21,280 23,724 31,862 7.45% 29,415 30,124 32,126
        IPHONE 142,381 137,781 191,973 51.42% 203,000 211,138 242,106
        MAC 25,740 28,622 35,190 10.09% 39,838 39,516 44,679
        OTHER PRODUCTS 24,482 30,620 38,367 10.74% 42,421 47,341 59,401
        SERVICES 46,291 53,768 68,425 20.30% 80,134 90,785 140,529

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

Apple consensus forecast

Of course, this is a well-followed company with a strong rating from the Wall Street community. Price targets have been following the market lower in a reactionary move. 

  Analysts Per level      
  28-Feb-2022 30-Mar-2022 30-Apr-2022 Current
1 - StrongBuy 16 16 15 15
2 - Buy 23 23 24 24
3 - Hold 7 7 8 8
4 - Sell - - - -
5 - StrongSell - - - -
Rec Mean 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9
         
Price Target Summary        
Price Target Target      
  28-Feb-2022 28-Mar-2022 28-Apr-2022 Current
Median $197.00 $199.50 $195.00 $190.00
Mean $192.96 $193.53 $192.35 $188.92

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

Apple key info and metrics

Market Cap   2.4 trillion
Enterprise Value (EV)   2.9 trillion
EV/EBITDA   19
Free Float   16.17 billion shares
IPO date   12-Dec-80
52 week high   182.94
52 week low   123.13
Short interest   0.70%

Source: Refinitiv, TradingView and FXStreet calculations

Apple peer valuation comparison

Once the most valuable company in the world, AAPL justifies itself with some high margins and an impressive return on equity. However, EPS growth rates have been slowing. Apple's price/earnings ratio (P/E) has come down from over 30 in late 2021 and currently is close to the average for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Apple's 20-year average P/E ratio is 22, so it has also retraced close to that level. 

  Market Cap Gross margin FCF P/E EV/EBITDA P/book P/Sales EPS growth rate ROE
Apple $2.4 trillion 43% $106 billion 23 19 37 7 -9% 149%
Google $1.5 trillion 57% $69 billion 19 14 5 6 -2% 31%
Qualcomm $156 billion 59% $7 billion 14 11 15 5 50% 107%
Motorola $37 billion 46% $1 billion 30 20   5 -9%  
Nokia $29 billion 39% $1.5 billion 16 6 1.5 1 -3% 10%
Samsung $362 billion 40% $13 billion 10 4 1.5 1.5 24% 15%
S&P 500       20          
Nasdaq       25          

Source: Refinitiv, TradingView and FXStreet calculations

Macroeconomic analysis, market cycle and sector background

As we outlined in our Tesla deep dive article (see here), the macroeconomic backdrop continues to deteriorate. The combination of tighter monetary policy from global central banks, rising inflation and higher bond yields has sent risk assets into a bear market in 2022. Geopolitical headwinds from the Russia-Ukraine war have also meant supply chains remain in a state of flux and commodity prices remain at elevated levels. All of these elements will continue to eat into the margins and earnings of all companies. 

Apple 2022 % return versus Nasdaq and S&P 500

The Nasdaq and most tech stocks have entered an official bear market, defined as a loss of 20% or more. The S&P 500 has been holding just about above that decline for now. Bear markets on average have losses of nearly 40% from peak valuations and an average time span of 300 days. This bear market should have more time to run then – another 20% approximately if it is to meet the historical average. The key question is whether or not the US economy will go into recession in 2023. Bear markets without accompanying recessions are notably less severe with average peak-to-trough declines of 25%. This is a key metric to understand.

Deutsche Bank was the first major investment bank to predict a US recession by 2023, and there are numerous other indicators showing the likelihood of a recession. The yield curve is a favorite tool, and it does have an accurate prediction quality. Shown below is the yield curve and the associated US recessions in grey following a move into negative territory for the curve. 

Also worth pointing out is the level of consumer confidence. The revised benchmark University of Michigan Confidence Indicator on May 27 showed consumer confidence at a low not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Also of interest is the fact that sentiment levels this low are always associated with a US recession. Again the shaded areas in the chart below are US recessions.

A word on neon

Yet more problems exist on the supply chain front and even one that the market may not have fully come to grips with. Ukraine supplies about half the world's supply of neon gas. Neon is critical to the production of semiconductor chips. Apple needs those chips as does every other major technology manufacturer. See Reuters.

It is likely that major manufacturers such as those supplying Apple will have sufficient inventory built up for the remainder of this year, but 2023 may be a different story. This will be a serious headwind if it goes unresolved.

Apple news and earnings

Apple earnings for the quarter ended March 2022 showed continued strength with revenues up 9% and net income up 6%. iPhone sales were up 6%, but iPad sales fell 2% due to supply chain issues. This is a warning sign for us as Apple had telegraphed earlier in the year that it would prioritize chips for iPhone usage over the iPad. 

As mentioned above, Chinese shipments of smartphones fell 40.5% in March and in its last quarter earnings Apple’s China sales dropped 3%. 

Apple valuation analysis and fair value

We run standard DCF analysis using both a value in perpetuity approach and EV/EBITDA multiples. Current forecasts give us a fair value of $112 or $120 using unlevered free cash flows. If we use average analyst forecasts, then we get a much higher estimate of fair value at $184 using the growth in perpetuity model or $127 using EV/EBITDA.

  Apple free cash flows            
  2019 2020 2021 2022 est 2023 est 2024 est terminal
               
EBITDA 76,477 77,344 120,233 131,277 134,950 140,046  
EBIT 63,930 66,288 108,949 119,475 123,548 128,145  
Tax rate 15.944% 14.428% 13.302% 16.029% 15.960% 15.214%  
               
EBIT (1-t) 64,284 66,185 104,239 110,236 113,412 118,739 0
D&A 12,547 11,056 11,284 11,397 13,038 15,129  
Change in NWC - 18,780 28,966 -37,574 -12,365 17,993 0
Capital expenditures 10,495 7,309 11,085 10,801 12,102 12,843  
Unlevered free cash flows (UFCF) 41,242 29,040 52,904 125,612 100,636 72,774  
Free cash flow forecasts 58,896 73,365 92,953 109,240 112,699 121,909  
Discount rate (r)   10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
PV of UFCFs   26,136 47,614 113,051 90,572 65,497 -
PV of FCF   66,029 83,658 98,316 101,429 109,718  
Stage 1: Sum of present values   342,869          
Sum of PV using FCF   459,150          
Growth in perpuatiy valuation Using Forecast FCF        
growth rate   7%   7%      
2024 UFCF   77,868   130,442      
termival value in 2024   2,595,605   4,348,083      
Present Value of Terminal Value   1,611,667   2,699,817      
               
Enterprise value   1,954,536   3,158,967      
               
current net debt   62928   62928      
               
shares outstanding   16864.919   16864.919      
               
equity value $112 $184      
EBITDA Multiple approach              
ebitda multiple   20   20      
terminal value in 2024   2,800,924   2,800,924      
PV of term value   1,739,153   1,739,153      
               
ent value   2,082,023   2,198,303      
net debt   62,928   62,928      
shares outstanding   16,865   16,865      
equity value $120 $127      

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

However, we then adjust for our lowered revenue and margin forecasts. We are estimating Apple revenues fall by approximately 10% in 2023 and then remain flat for 2024. This as mentioned is due to a global recession and global central bank stimulus that has essentially pulled forward multiple years of demand into the pandemic period. We are already seeing this unwind across multiple demand profiles in various industries. We expect demand to remain healthy for 2022, but inflation will then see it subside with the aforementioned lack of monetary stimulus also not helping. 

Margin compression is a feature of nearly every earnings call this quarter, and we do not expect that to subside. Costs are increasing globally across energy, semiconductors shortages, shipping costs and labor costs. Increased border controls mean globalization, as we know it, is coming to an end, resulting in greater add-on costs for globalized businesses. We forecast a modest reduction in margins back to 2021 levels. We believe this is likely understating the effects, but for now, we will run with a conservative margin compression to 38%. 

This gives us fresh forecasts as follows:

  2022 2023 2024
Revenue 394,134 365,000 365,000
Revenue 394,134 365,000 365,000
COGS 223,825 226,300 226,300
Gross Profit 170,309 138,700 138,700
    Gross Margin 43.2% 38.0% 38.0%
       
SG&A (& Other) 28,575 30,659 34,081
R&D 21,914 21,914 21,914
Operating Profit EBIT 119,820 86,127 82,705
    Operating Margin 30.4% 23.6% 22.7%
       
Other Income/(Expense) 120 861 3,608
Pretax Profit 119,940 86,987 86,313
    Pretax Margin 30.4% 23.8% 23.6%
       
Inc Taxes (& Adjustments) 19,750 14,345 15,240
    Tax Rate 16.5% 16.5% 17.7%
       
Net Income 100,190 72,642 71,073
    Net Margin 25.4% 19.9% 19.5%
       
Shares (in millions) 16,274 15,797 15,620
       
GAAP EPS      
Exclusions      
Pro Forma EPS 6.16 4.60 4.55
       
       
Mean Estimate 6.14 6.56 6.91

Source: Refinitiv and FXStreet calculations

Running the new numbers into our DCF model above gives us a fair value of $110 using the perpetuity model with Apple’s 5-year average growth rate of 8%. It comes in at $96 using EV/EBITDA. These numbers may sound alarming to some, but this merely returns Apple to where it was trading in 2020. 

We can see from the chart below that Apple’s average price/earnings ratio over the past 20 years has been 22.08, so this is quite close to where it is now. Taking our EPS estimate above at $4.60 for 2023 gives us a price target of $101.56.

Clearly, using our reduced revenue and margin forecasts gives us a fair value range of $96 to $110.

For ease of use and the psychological preponderance of the market to fixate on round numbers, we place a $100 price target on Apple and a SELL rating.

Apple technical analysis

How does this $100 level fit in with the AAPL stock chart? This $100 level acted as resistance several times in July 2020 before strong earnings on July 30, 2020, supercharged Apple higher and it finally broke above. The current situation has Apple rallying to near $150, but strong support exists at $138.31. A likely break of $138.31 will see a slow move lower. Apple then would find itself in a well-trafficked zone from $130 to $115 with huge volume at those price ranges. Once below $115, volume thins out, meaning a test of $100 becomes more likely. A break of $100 looks likely from a technical perspective as surprisingly volume at $100 is light, meaning low price acceptance. This would be consistent with stop-hunting as round numbers are so often major stop levels. Stops could stretch Apple down to volume support at $90.

We also must take note of the imminent death cross formation where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. Below $150 Apple remains strongly bearish, only becoming bullish on a break above $165.

AAPL stock daily chart

Apple price target and recommendation

The AAPL stock technical picture confirms our bearish valuation, and we stick with the $100 price target. This necessitates a Sell rating

Upside risks to our assumptions:

  • Supply chain issues resolve.
  • Input costs stabilize.
  • Inflation is transitory.
  • Chinese demand increases from loose central bank policy – our key risk. China is lowering rates while the rest of the global central banks are tightening. This could encourage middle-class spending in China.
  • Major central bank reverse monetary tightening.
  • Indian middle-class expansion accelerates quicker than expected. This almost warrants a separate article, but India’s middle class is expanding rapidly (akin to China 20 years ago) and will provide a valuable source of revenue in the 2030s in our view. That is, however, slightly too far out for this analysis. 

 

Apple reported earnings and forecast tables below, the foundation for all our DCF models. Data taken from Refinitiv (Reuters).

      HISTORICAL (ACTUALS) FORECAST (MEAN)    
  FY Sep-19 FY Sep-20 FY Sep-21 FY Sep-22 FY Sep-23 FY Sep-24
INCOME STATEMENT            
REVENUE 260174.000 274515.000 365817.000 394009.918 416241.124 436300.796
    Guidance T T T T - -
        IPAD 21280.000 23724.000 31862.000 29415.431 30123.957 32126.000
        IPHONE 142381.000 137781.000 191973.000 203000.051 211137.811 242105.500
        MAC 25740.000 28622.000 35190.000 39838.055 39516.425 44679.000
        OTHER PRODUCTS 24482.000 30620.000 38367.000 42420.982 47341.417 59401.333
        SERVICES 46291.000 53768.000 68425.000 80133.560 90785.311 140529.333
             
COST OF GOODS SOLD 161782.000 169559.000 212981.000 223576.260 237413.293 249040.200
GROSS INCOME 98392.000 104956.000 152836.000 170037.095 180553.273 191255.800
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN 37.820% 37.810% 41.780% 43.178% 43.259% 43.610%
    Guidance T T T - - -
             
SELLING & MARKETING EXPENSE 18245.000 19916.000 21973.000 24512.000 28016.000 31351.000
SG&A EXPENSE 18245.000 19916.000 21973.000 25305.640 27401.149 27906.822
R&D EXPENSE 16217.000 18752.000 21914.000 25679.207 28838.565 31977.008
STOCK BASED COMPENSATION 6068.000 6829.000 7906.000 8271.273 8588.000 10703.000
OPERATING EXPENSE 34462.000 38668.000 43887.000 51052.492 57087.446 61479.750
    Guidance - T T - - -
             
EBITDA 76477.000 77344.000 120233.000 131277.435 134949.803 140046.202
EBITDA PER SHARE 4.113 4.410 7.129 8.279 9.059 9.960
DEPRECIATION 12547.000 11056.000 11284.000 11655.010 13121.414 16168.963
AMORTIZATION - - - 11974.000 11837.000 11989.000
DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION 12547.000 11056.000 11284.000 11397.088 13038.300 15129.413
             
EBIT 63930.000 66288.000 108949.000 119475.180 123547.557 128145.237
INTEREST EXPENSE 3576.000 2873.000 2645.000 1063.750 1054.500 2625.000
             
PRE-TAX PROFIT 65737.000 67091.000 109207.000 119629.151 123994.657 128711.109
TAX PROVISION 10481.000 9680.000 14527.000 19027.015 19715.113 19939.333
TAX RATE 15.944% 14.428% 13.302% 16.029% 15.960% 15.214%
             
NET INCOME 55256.000 57411.000 94680.000 100137.706 103862.505 108012.128
NUMBER OF SHARES OUTSTANDING 18595.652 17528.214 16864.919 16287.825 15819.445 15576.490
             
EARNINGS PER SHARE 2.973 3.280 5.610 6.140 6.563 6.914
EBITDA REPORTED 76477.000 77344.000 120233.000 131626.185 136741.280 144314.432
PRE-TAX PROFIT REPORTED 65737.000 67091.000 109207.000 119223.424 123402.747 128534.715
NET INCOME REPORTED 55256.000 57411.000 94680.000 100206.943 104230.979 109448.607
EARNINGS PER SHARE REPORTED 2.973 3.280 5.610 6.126 6.570 6.987
DIVIDEND PER SHARE 0.750 0.795 0.850 0.908 0.969 1.045
    Guidance - - T - - -
BALANCE SHEET            
CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 48844.000 38016.000 34940.000 74446.125 107420.125 92503.250
INVENTORY 4106.000 4061.000 6580.000 7016.589 7381.847 9626.750
CURRENT ASSETS 162819.000 143713.000 134836.000 157842.800 195851.100 217601.750
TOTAL ASSETS 338516.000 323888.000 351002.000 353268.097 380941.463 439496.000
CURRENT LIABILITIES 105718.000 105392.000 125481.000 135821.900 144143.500 160377.250
CURRENT DEFERRED REVENUE 5522.000 6643.000 7612.000 8105.167 8333.167 8584.000
TOTAL DEBT 108047.000 112436.000 125567.000 120920.000 121389.500 63810.500
NET DEBT 7490.000 21493.000 62928.000 -65497.757 -79660.867 -84864.307
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY 90488.000 65339.000 63090.000 59919.392 76393.428 107419.457
GOODWILL - - - 4034.333 3269.500 -
NET ASSET VALUE 90488.000 65339.000 63090.000 60595.997 80601.385 122422.800
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE 5.091 3.850 3.841 3.875 4.429 4.989
TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE PER SHARE 5.091 3.850 3.841 3.608 4.575 -
ENTERPRISE VALUE 1002641.567 1987571.923 2523692.600 2434148.837 2478936.762 2475944.821
TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE 90488.000 65339.000 63090.000 59376.105 69036.875 85198.578
CASH FLOW STATEMENT            
NET WORKING CAPITAL 57101.000 38321.000 9355.000 46929.250 59294.000 41301.000
INCOME TAXES PAID 15263.000 9501.000 25385.000 - - -
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS 69391.000 80674.000 104038.000 122168.783 125775.546 136212.250
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 10495.000 7309.000 11085.000 10800.701 12102.423 12842.778
    Guidance T T - T - -
CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING 45896.000 -4289.000 -14545.000 -24828.300 -8069.500 -12109.000
FREE CASH FLOW 58896.000 73365.000 92953.000 109240.074 112699.320 121908.860
FREE CASH FLOW PER SHARE 3.168 4.190 5.509 6.960 7.326 7.860
TOTAL DIVIDENDS 14119.000 14081.000 14467.000 16883.115 14919.000 15122.750
CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING -90976.000 -86820.000 -93353.000 -106606.000 -88479.636 -85267.750
CASH FLOW PER SHARE 3.733 4.602 6.170 7.183 7.827 8.543
VALUATION METRICS            
RETURN ON ASSETS 15.690% 17.330% 28.059% 28.572% 28.183% 28.500%
RETURN ON EQUITY 55.920% 73.680% 147.439% 156.580% 147.398% 140.181%
RETURN ON CAPITAL EMPLOYED 27.460% 30.340% 48.310% 54.100% 57.000% 56.900%
RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL 54.550% 65.190% 74.927% 72.450% 70.050% -
PRICE/SALES RATIO - - 6.059% 6.140% 5.470% 5.120%
             

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