The Lucky Currency: Australian Dollar

Summary

There are two ways to look at the Aussie's 13.8% top to bottom (1.0582-0.9113) fall against the US Dollar since mid-April. First is the immediate context. It is rare for a major currency to have a fall of this magnitude without a substantial subsequent retracement. The small return since the June 28 low has not reached even the shallowest of the Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.9457 (23.6%). The second lens is historical. Even at its currency level against the dollar of 0.9234 (7/1), and including its run from 0.6009 in the fall of 2008 to the July 2011 all-time record of 1.1081, the Aussie is still 22% below its 20 year average of 0.7588. Has the expansion of the Chinese, Indian and other emerging market economies and their need for resources brought the providers and their currencies to a higher natural plane of valuation? Of to put it another way, has the Australian economy entered a new and long-term state of economic expansion in tandem with emerging markets?