Summary
This month’s Fed rate decision is easily the most anticipated, analyzed and discussed since the financial crisis. The Fed has said it is ‘data dependent’, that economic conditions will determine its policy. That statement is untrue, or rather, it is true only at the extreme. If the U.S. unemployment rate was 7 percent or non-farm payrolls had averaged 100,000 for the past two years then data would indeed determine policy and there would be no rate hike. But that is not the case. American economic data can justify either a rate hike or a continuation of the zero policy. The Fed’s decision will not depend on data but on its view of the outcome. What are the likely effects of a 0.25% rate hike? How much of the effect has already been priced into equities, commodities, credit and currency markets? Will a single quarter point increase followed by a long hiatus have any appreciable impact? Do the distortions of zero rates outweigh the benefits? Join us for a unconventional view of the Federal Reserve decision.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0900 after US data
EUR/USD stays in negative territory below 1.0900 in the American session on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that there were 222,000 first-time application for unemployment benefits last week, limiting the USD's recovery and helping EUR/USD limit its losses.
GBP/USD corrects lower toward 1.2650 on modest USD recovery
After touching its highest level in over a month at 1.2700, GBP/USD reversed its direction and declined toward 1.2650 on Thursday. The modest USD rebound seen following Wednesday's sharp decline makes it difficult for the pair to regain its traction.
Gold finds resistance near $2,400, retreats toward $2,380
Gold advanced toward $2,400 on Wednesday as US Treasury bond yields pushed lower following the April inflation data. The recovery in US yields combined with the US Dollar's resilience, however, causes XAU/USD to retreat toward $2,380 on Thursday.
Bitcoin likely to return to all-time high of $73,949, QCP Capital says
Bitcoin (BTC) price is likely to rally back to $74,000 in the coming weeks, it's all-time high reached in March, riding on three bullish catalysts, according to crypto trading firm QCP Capital.
Dow Jones Industrial Average soars 350 points, sets new all-time high as rate cut hopes surge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average clipped into a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, gaining almost nine-tenths of a percent during the US market session after US Consumer Price Index inflation slipped further back.