• XRP price down 7%, knocking price below the lower trend line of a bear flag formation.
  • Ripple discovered formidable resistance at the intersection of the Anchored VWAP with the 200-day SMA around $0.740.
  • Support at $0.650 is significant, supported by the May 23 low, price highs in February and late 2020.

XRP price did engineer a 45% gain from the June 22 low to the June 29 high, but it does not meet the criteria of an impulsive recovery as volume was unimpressive. Today’s breakdown from a bearish flag pattern reflects the corrective temperament of the rebound. It has raised the odds that Ripple will break below $0.650 and target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.555 and potentially the June 22 low of $0.512.  

XRP price lacks mojo, following the same blueprint as other cryptocurrencies

At the June 22 low, XRP price had declined 70% and a remarkable 50% from the June 1 high, liquidating the May 23 low of $0.652, a level fortified by weekly highs in late 2020 and February 2021. Nonetheless, Ripple realized three important technical milestones that provoked a 45% rebound: a test of the 78.6% retracement of the December 2020-April 2021 advance at $0.555, an undercut of the 50-week SMA at $0.540 and registered an oversold reading on the daily RSI for the first time since late December 2020.

The 45% rebound is noteworthy, but it lacks the impulsiveness that characterizes meaningful bottoms and the momentum that would enable XRP price to conquer the immense resistance around $0.740-$0.760. The result has been a bear flag formation triggering today, putting the support level of $0.650 in play very quickly.

The Ripple bear flag formation’s measured move is approximately 36%, suggesting XRP price will defeat the 78.6% retracement level of $0.555 and the June 22 low of $0.512 before bottoming around $0.437.

It is important to note that XRP price has no support of note below the measured move target, amplifying the pressure on committed Ripple investors.

XRP/USD daily chart

The bearish Ripple narrative is persuasive at this point, and only a daily close above $0.760, the neckline of a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, would alter the outlook. 

XRP price may move into a trading range between $0.555 and $0.760 moving forward, thereby creating ideal trading conditions for swing traders due to the hulking support and resistance levels and the resulting 30-40% profit opportunities that lie between. However, for long-term investors, Ripple is dead money under $0.760 


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