Jonathan Morgan
Independent Analyst
- XRP price returns below the bear flag, threatening a deeper move south.
- -20% drop to $0.85 likely if bulls fail to support XRP.
- A Kumo Twist up ahead may terminate the current downtrend.
XRP price showed signs of recovery last Friday (November 19th, 2021), moving higher by as much as 6% and closing nearly 5% higher on the day. However, Sunday’s price action pushed XRP below the bear flag, threatening a continuation of lower prices.
XRP price action failed to hold above its bear flag
XRP price is in genuine danger of experiencing a fast 20% drop. A close below the $0.99 level would position XRP just below the last level of support in a high-volume node. Below $0.99, the Volume Profile becomes very thin, indicating a swift move from $0.99 to the next high-volume node at $0.93. And below $0.93, the Volume Profile only becomes thinner.
The likely support for XRP price on a daily close below $0.93 would be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.84. But from a Volume Profile perspective, XRP could quickly blast through $0.84 to test the 50% retracement at $0.64 as there is a massive gap in the Volume Profile between $0.84 and $0.64.
However, the current downtrend may terminate soon due to an Ichimoku condition known as a Kumo Twist. Kumo Twists are simply instances where Senkou Span A crosses above or below Senkou Span B. Visually, the event changes the Cloud from red to green or green to red. What is most important about the Kumo Twist is how short-term, and long-term trends react to the date of the Kumo Twist.
XRP/USDT Daily Ichimoku Chart
When an instrument is in a clear trend or correction as it approaches the date of the Kumo Twist, there is a high probability of that trend or correction reversing. In other words, if XRP price continues to trend lower on the date of the Kumo Twist, November 24th, then XRP price is likely to find support and move higher. Therefore, the first target for bulls to establish a new uptrend would be a close above the Cloud ($1.07 or higher) on November 24th.
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