Week Ahead: Buy the dip or sit on your hands?

Bitcoin price slips below $30,000 after a relatively stationary weekend.
A look at the big picture reveals investors need to be cautious in the third quarter.
Long-term investors must look for buy-the-dip opportunities as bears will likely take over in the third quarter.

With June nearing its end, we need to take another look at the big picture to remind us that we’re in it for the long run. So, in this newsletter, I will give you a perspective of what to expect from Bitcoin in the next two quarters and to better prepare for the same.

Also read: Is Bitcoin’s 2023 bull rally at an end?

Bitcoin’s monthly and quarterly returns

As mentioned in a previous publication, historical returns are key to identifying what comes next. Like clockwork, Bitcoin price returned 68.55% in quarter 1 and 6.55% in the second quarter.

Again, from a historical standpoint, the third quarter is favorable for bears, with an average return of only 4.21%. To make matters worse, July, August, and September are the months with the least average BTC returns, as seen in the chart below.

Lastly, the fourth quarter has an average return of 93.38%, with the highest average return observed in November.

So, the takeaway is simple, sit on your hands or accumulate BTC on the dips for the next three months. After the dreadful third quarter is completed, Bitcoin price is likely to embark on a journey that will shun the first quarter returns and potentially attempt a move to retest the all-time highs at $69,000.

Bitcoin quarterly and monthly returns

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