Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bad timing for BTC slump as market weekend tranquil sets in

  • Bitcoin price wants back above the crucial support above $26,300, but waning momentum characteristic of the weekend won't let it.
  • Ethereum price can do nothing but follow BTC cues, with the $1,714 presenting as a hard nut to crack
  •  Ripple price passes time around $0.5048; a drop to $0.4181 may be imminent amid gloomy macroeconomics in the XRP camp.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down, but not out, only that the recent slump happened to close to the weekend, denying the market a chance for a rebuttal. As retail transitions to the weekend mode, the volume of trade is expected to reduce, with chances of few isolated large orders as whales step in. If they don't, BTC could step into the next week within the current low range. With it, Ethereum (ETH) price could follow suit, and for Ripple (XRP), unless something significant happens in the case against the US SEC, the remittance token may continue to mark time pending Monday August 21 updates. 

Also Read: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: More BTC liquidations than during FTX fallout, what's next?

Bitcoin price looks for a possible tow

Bitcoin (BTC) price is yet to recover from the 14% slump recorded during the evening hours of the US session. Currently auctioning at $26,036, BTC is below a crucial support level, the ascending trendline, which provided support for months, as indicated in the chart below.

With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) position at 18 and the histograms of the AO flashing red in growing volume, bears remain in the driver's seat. This means that Bitcoin price may still have a long ways to go before securing an uptrend.

One possible fundamental that could have steered Bitcoin price in the right direction is a favorable decision from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning Grayscale's application for its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to be converted into an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). However, considering the commission has delayed for the second time, the weekend may not record any significant action unless whales step in to take advantage of the weekend tranquility.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart

If sidelined investors and investors come in, Bitcoin price could find a footing to push north. While flipping the $$26,300 and $27,300 levels from resistance back to support would be a good sign, only a decisive candlestick close above the ascending trendline at $28,738 would invalidate the current gloom, with a possible foray to the $30,400 presenting next.

Also Read Bitcoin price dips to the $25,100 range with $820 million long positions liquidated across the market.

Ethereum price follows BTC on the heels

Ethereum (ETH) price reflects an almost similar outlook as BTC, indicating a long candlestick for the August 17 trading session and a short one for August 18 as the largest altcoin continues pulling north. This points to a tight correlation between BTC and ETH, with capital overflows from Bitcoin likely to drive Ethereum if the capital does come.

As in the case of BTC, the RSI is at 19, pointing to a weak price strength. The AO histogram bars do not inspire optimism either, pointing to the bears' position in the front row seats. Without a significant catalyst to drive Bitcoin price, ETH holders may remain within the $1,714 to $1,627 range for a while, possibly across the weekend.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart

On the other hand, should Bitcoin price start moving, ETH would easily follow suit, drawing north to breach the $1,813 resistance level. Higher, it could traverse the $1,891 and $1,941 resistance levels, respectively, before an attempt to reclaim the May 6 and mid-July highs above the $2,000 psychological level. A decisive daily candlestick close above this level invalidates the current bearish outlook. It would constitute a 20% flight from the current level.

Also Read: Ethereum Price Forecast: Indication of a 45% crash of bear trap?

Ripple price mark times around $0.5010

Ripple price has been stuck around the $0.5010 level for the better part of the day after pulling back 20% from the August 17 low of $0.4226. While the token also looks to Bitcoin for influence, a lot depends on the ongoing lawsuit between Ripple and the US SEC after the court approved the regulators' request for an interlocutory appeal.

As reported, the SEC wants the Howey Test revisited, with a potential overturning of the Ripple victory on July 13. Just as the partial victory sent XRP north by unprecedented margins, the possibility of an overturn inspires fears. With this, Ripple price could hover around the current level for a while or draw toward the $0.4191 support floor.

The RSI at 23, coupled with the bars of the AO histograms in the negative zone, bolsters the bears' case, indicating a possible slump.

XRP/USDT 1-day chart

Conversely, a resurgence by XRP bulls could send Ripple price north, possibly foraying above the $0.5752 resistance level or higher past the $0.6840 level. In a highly bullish case, XRP could reclaim the $0.8193 resistance level, levels last seen around July. 

Also Read: SEC vs Ripple, the legal battle intensifies as XRP holders expect new changes from SEC appeal

SEC vs Ripple lawsuit FAQs

Is XRP a security?

It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14:

For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security.
For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.

How does the ruling affect Ripple in its legal battle against the SEC?

The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token.

While the judge ruled that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and will need to keep litigating over the around $729 million it received under written contracts.

What are the implications of the ruling for the overall crypto industry?

The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at.

Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say.

Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales are likely to persist.

Is the SEC stance toward crypto assets likely to change after the ruling?

The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation.

While defendants can use parts of Ripple’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.

Can the court ruling be overturned?

The court decision is a partial summary judgment. The ruling can be appealed once a final judgment is issued or if the judge allows it before then. The case is in a pretrial phase, in which both Ripple and the SEC still have the chance to settle.

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