Ethereum price is unable to trade away from the lows as traders got a harsh reminder

Ethereum (ETH) price is still under much pressure from the upside as several technical and tail risk pressures keep price action muted. Although the rally in September looked promising, bulls could not gain traction above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. The collapse of FTX could not have come at a worse crucial moment as it erased all the efforts built up over September and delivered a hard reminder to traders: tail risks are there to stay and are not going away anytime soon.

ETH price sees battle plans being formed by bulls

Ethereum price has had a very binary path in its history where it was simple to be long and stay long for 2021 and become simply bearish for 2022. Thus far, the easy part, as it becomes very choppy now for both bulls and bears to identify where and when to trade and how. A good, solid, and strict trading plan is vital to surviving this market momentum. 

Current tail risks are thus crushing ETH price as inflation, the overall performance of the dollar this year and the situation in Ukraine, in addition to the technical from the 55-day and the 200-day SMA as caps on the upside. ETH looks to be in no condition to jump back above $1,404 and will see traders await lower levels around $1,000 before deciding to build up some positions for a long strategy. 

ETH/USD weekly chart

Upside potential would only come if a few elements are being broken to the upside and added to the toolbox of the bulls, as those key levels would become support instead of resistance. The goal is to reach that pivotal level near $2,695 initially, which would mean a 120% price increase. Although that might look farfetched, bulls only need to break both the 55-day and the 200-day SMA by performing a weekly close above there. Once that is done, it is smooth sailing to that $2,695, as not many big technical caps are in between.