Ethereum price has one barrier to break before $1,500

Ethereum (ETH) price has completed a swing trade to the upside that was mentioned in Wednesday’s  top three price predictions article here on FX Street. This raises an interesting point: when trading, it is best to pick a few cryptocurrencies and follow everything involved with their price action instead of trying to trade every cryptocurrency as it catches news for better or for worse. Ethereum price is now at a crossroads with US job numbers this afternoon dictating whether it goes up or down.

ETH price at a crossroad

Ethereum price is on the verge of taking the last step to tying up gains for June, depending on whether the swing trade it has just performed still has more room to go. ETH price has hit $1,243 this morning and even broke above it. The risk is that Ethereum price falls, in a repetition of what was seen on June 26, with a false break and full retrace back to $1,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is right on 50, in the middle of its range and could go either way, with slight bias toward favouring bulls.

ETH price could use the US job report this afternoon as a catalyst to jump higher. In both cases, Ethereum price has reasons to rise, whether the result be good or bad. In case of a miss, the dollar will back off and open up a window of dollar weakness where Ethereum can fill the gap by trading higher. And in the case where the job number remains strong, expect to see a lift in sentiment as fears of a US recession recede, and investors are emboldened to start picking up cryptocurrencies again, as household income is expected to remain elevated while inflation and consumer prices drop.  In such a scenario, Ethereum could very well hit $1,500 and the level of the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

ETH/USD daily chart

The risk to the downside is that we see a repetition of what happened on June 26, with ETH price collapsing under a fade triggered by profit-taking at $1,243. Price action is set to drop back towards $1,000 as the swing trade turns into a range trade, with price action being stuck for a couple of weeks. It will be important to monitor the close at the end of this evening after the US closing bell to see if the range holds or gets broken to the upside.