• Ethereum price forming a bear pennant on the weekly chart with a jumbo measured move target.
  • ETH 61.8% Fibonacci retracement could be instrumental in limiting the downside implications of the pennant.
  • A noteworthy decoupling with Bitcoin shows that investors are focused on ETH-specific developments like the London hard fork or technicals.

Ethereum price has been forming a bear pennant on the weekly chart for the last three weeks. Since the smart contracts giant is locked in a technical stranglehold, investors should be patient and constantly mindful of the significant downside implications of the pattern.

Ethereum price action is falling more in line with other altcoins

Ethereum price will undoubtedly see some disruption after London’s hard fork update to address energy usage and high transaction fees. It is one in a series of network upgrades as ETH transitions from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus. 

The belief is that the hard fork will be successful, making Ethereum more attractive as a store of value, thereby permitting the digital asset to expand its target market.

Based on the governing technical pattern, Ethereum price suggests that the hard fork will not be without problems or setbacks. In fact, the bear pennant is suggesting a measured move target of $1,157 or a decline of 48% based on the preceding flagpole. A drop of that magnitude would easily dismantle support at the May low, the 2018 high and leave ETH positioned near the 50-week simple moving average (SMA).

The first signal that the bear pennant is resolving to the downside is a daily close below $2,200. It would leave Ethereum price below the pennant’s lower trend line and the 50% retracement level at $2,237. Further confirmation will be another daily close below the February high of $2,041, a level that held on a weekly closing basis in May.

If the Ethereum price gets locked into a severe decline, it will discover formidable support at the intersection of the 61.8% retracement at $1,730 with the May low of $1,728 before targeting the May 2018 high of $1,419 and then the 50-week SMA at $1,196.

ETH/USD weekly chart

ETH/USD weekly chart

On a weekly chart, Ethereum price would need to close above the 10-week SMA at $2,680 to effect a reversal of fortune for the digital asset, but it would still need a close above the pennant’s upper trend line at $2,860 to confirm.

July is an inflection moment for ETH marked by great anticipation and expectations. At this point, Ethereum price, often a leading indicator, is showing some doubt above the hard fork. Moreover, the continual decline in the correlation coefficient with Bitcoin indicates that Ethereum price moves will be more in line with token-specific events or technicals and will not be notably helped by positive Bitcoin developments, such as the recent El Salvador news.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Cryptos feed

Latest Crypto News

Latest Crypto News & Analysis

Editors’ Picks

Ethereum shifts away from ETH 2.0

Ethereum will be moving away from ETH 1.0 and ETH 2.0 as the protocol undergoes significant changes. Core developers on the network are referring to the stages on the blockchain as the “execution layer” and “consensus layer.”

More Ethereum News

Dogecoin price primed for an explosive move to $0.25

A brief technical and on-chain analysis on Dogecoin price. FXStreet's analysts evaluate where DOGE could be heading next.

More Dogecoin News

Solana price must regain $100 to recover from market volatility

Solana (SOL) price broke below the monthly S2 support at $89 and targeted $59 to the downside. The entrance of bulls could push price action in SOL back above S2 and keep it there going into today's session. 

More Solana News

Renowned analyst believes Bitcoin bottomed out and entered a 96-day bull cycle

Analysts have evaluated the Bitcoin price trend and revealed that a rejection of the asset’s reversal attempts could imply that it has bottomed out. Bitcoin may have hit bottom and entered a 96-day bull cycle. 

More Bitcoin News

Bitcoin: BTC may capitulate to $30,000

Bitcoin price has dropped considerably over the last three weeks. The recent downswing has made things worse for BTC and hints that a steep correction could be on its way.

Read full analysis