• Since Tuesday, Dogecoin has slipped 6% as price action moves further to the downside this morning. 
  • A retest of DOGE at $0.12 would, with the triple bottom last week, constitute  a last line of defence before $0.10
  • Investors are repositioning themselves for another eventful Ukraine development going into the weekend.

Dogecoin (DOGE) price action has already broken below the low of Thursday and is set to tread more water as safe havens continue heavily bid this morning, with both Asian and European investors bracing themselves for another weekend of escalations in Ukraine. Now as nonfarm payrolls headline the docket this afternoon, the dollar’s strength looks to hold, with the potential to break below 1.0 against the euro. With dollar strength likely to spillover into cryptocurrencies and add bearish pressure to the price cross losses are likely to mount. We could be heading into a weekend of heavy tanking, amounting to almost 20% before DOGE could be halted by bulls in its descent, probably at around $0.10 with the monthly S1 as an anchor.

Dogecoin price being kicked out of portfolios for the weekend handover

Dogecoin is not in a sweet spot as price action turns negative for the week after a firm rejection at the monthly pivot around $0.14. Since then, price action has been slipping further to the downside, and the weekly gain is at risk of turning into a loss as this afternoon, the US jobs report could add to more dollar strength. An additional negative factor is that talks between Russia and Ukraine have not resulted in a solid ceasefire going into the weekend, which means high systemic risk and investors clearing risk assets out of their portfolio before the end of the week.

DOGE bulls could have one element to look for, which is support around $0.12 – a level that has supported price action last week and on Monday. But on its own, the level does not hold much historical support, and thus the room to the downside could become broader with a drop towards the $0.10 area and the monthly S1 support just below $0.10, as well as the $0.09 historical level, now in the crosshairs. An additional argument for all out bearishness is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is still far from being oversold and thus holds more room for DOGE to move to the downside.

DOGE/USD daily chart

DOGE/USD daily chart

Alternatively, a reversal to the upside could see a test first at the ceiling around $0.14, and then, should momentum provide enough cash inflow, a test of the 55-day Simple Moving Average at around $0.1460. In the event of a big catalyst event, expect more upside towards $0.16 and the start of a longer-term uptrend towards even $0.19.


 

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