Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Investors wonder if BTC troubles are behind

Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized around the $57,000 mark this week, while the German Government persists in transferring Bitcoin to exchanges. Concurrently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows. On-chain analytics indicate that whales are accumulating BTC during dips, potentially foreshadowing an imminent rally in the days ahead.

German Government's transfers continue

According to data from Akram Intelligence, the German Government's token balance has decreased from 40,000 to 16,000 BTC this week. The Token Balance history shows that since the start of this week, the German holdings have been reduced from $2.2 billion to $896 million.

This significant constant BTC transfer activity to exchanges from the German Government may have triggered FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders, potentially contributing to a decline in Bitcoin's price. 

German Token Balances chart

German Balances History

US Bitcoin spot ETFs see inflows this week

According to Coinglass data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their fourth consecutive day of inflows on Thursday, amounting to $78.90 million. Cumulatively, inflows reached $737.50 million till Thursday this week, signaling growing investor confidence and potentially foreshadowing a short-term uptick in Bitcoin's price. Monitoring these ETFs' net inflows is crucial for understanding market dynamics and investor sentiment. As of Thursday, the combined Bitcoin reserves held by these 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $50.49 billion.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow chart

Whales Accumulation 

Data from CryptQuant indicates the second-largest institutional accumulation of 2024, contrasting with widespread capitulation among novice investors last week, particularly those who purchased coins between one and three months ago.

Institutional players undertook their most significant accumulation since March, akin to the early phases of Bitcoin spot ETF launches, although this time with minimal ETF-related inflows amid declining prices. The recent accumulation amounted to approximately 101,600 BTC, suggesting a genuine "buying the dip" strategy by major institutional entities, diverging from earlier trends predominantly driven by ETF-related activities.

Bitcoin Total Balance and change of large holders chart

Additionally, Arkham Intelligence provides further validation to the whale accumulation theory. Specifically, Blackrock's wallet has been actively acquiring the Bitcoin sold off by the German Government in recent months.

Donal Trump to speak at world's largest Bitcoin conference in July

The Bitcoin Conference Twitter account announced that Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, will be a featured speaker at Bitcoin 2024, the world's largest Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, scheduled from July 25 to July 27. This announcement follows Trump's recent endorsement of Bitcoin (BTC) and the Republican party's commitment to integrating the cryptocurrency into their platform, pledging to safeguard Bitcoin mining and self-custody practices.

Bitcoin 2024 aims to build on the success of previous conferences held in Miami. Bitcoin 2021 gained prominence after El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele recognized Bitcoin as a legal tender. Subsequent events in 2022 and 2023 featured notable moments, including US Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s supportive address of the Bitcoin industry.

As Trump campaigns for the presidency, his public support for Bitcoin contrasts with President Joe Biden's more cautious stance on cryptocurrencies. While Biden's attendance at Bitcoin 2024 remains unconfirmed, the event may underscore the candidates' divergent approaches toward Bitcoin and its role in future policy discussions.

Is BTC out of the woods?

Bitcoin has encountered a barrier near the $58,375 weekly resistance throughout this week. As of Friday, BTC is trading at $57,116, showing a slight decline of 0.3% on a daily basis.

Furthermore, BTC is below a descending trendline formed by connecting multiple swing highs from early June to mid-July.

If BTC closes above the weekly resistance at $58,375, a breakthrough above the descending trendline could lead to a 9% increase, targeting the daily resistance at $63,956.

Moreover, the daily chart shows a lower low formation on July 5, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator established a higher high during the same period. This bullish divergence often signals a trend reversal or a short-term rally.

BTC/USDT daily chart

Conversely, if BTC closes below the daily support level at $52,266 and forms another lower low in the daily timeframe, it could indicate continued bearish sentiment. Such a scenario might trigger a 4% decline in Bitcoin's price, potentially revisiting the February 23 low of $50,521.