Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Analyzing potential $30k corrections ahead of BTC ETF approval

Bitcoin (BTC) price has slowed down its 2023 bull rally as it approaches the $37,000 level. After three weeks of consolidating around this level, BTC shows no directional bias whatsoever. Some investors speculate this could be an upward-sloping accumulation that leads to a $40,000 rally; others forecast a correction to $35,000 or lower. 

In this weekly article, let us address both the scenarios. 

Read more: Bitcoin price to hit $125,000 in 2024 according to Matrixport research

Bitcoin price and its bullish outlook

The odds of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) approval in January have remained high. This narrative has been a key driver of the 2023 bull rally in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. It has fared well so far, but the confusion lies ahead – a continuation of the run or a correction that provides an opportunity to accumulate? 

With the holiday season, crypto markets are likely to enter a low liquidity and trading volume phase. These markets are extremely treacherous and could cause massively volatile moves in BTC and altcoins. 

Assuming there are no bearish developments from a news perspective, then investors can expect more sideways consolidation or a steady climb toward $40,000. 

Breaking this psychological level could propel Bitcoin price to the next key weekly barrier at $43,160. If the ETF is approved before the estimated dates, then this rally could blast through the next weekly hurdle at $46,681 and retest the $50,000 level. 

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

Hsaka, a popular crypto analyst, posted his thoughts on the current Bitcoin price action on social media platform X. Hsaka’s tweet notes that the current price action is similar to what has happened in the past – the low-time frame up-sloping grind is likely to result in a massive move to the upside followed by a quick reversal of the move. This move will continue until the ETF is approved, after which, a breakout candlestick will likely restart the bull run.

Read  more: Spot Bitcoin ETF window set between January 5 and 10, expert says as SEC publishes proposed rule changes

BTC’s bearish outlook probabilities  

While the bullish Bitcoin price action is logical, investors need to also prepare for a potential correction. The up-sloping price action has produced higher lows that have not been swept for liquidity. 

Considering the juncture that we are in, it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin price will continue the bull rally without sweeping below these lows to collect the accumulated sell-side liquidity. In this regard, the $34,024 to $30,379 range is the key weekly zone to watch for reaccumulation. 

With more than a month remaining between now and the ETF approval in January 2024, the chances of a correction are high.

BTC/USDT 1-week chart

From a bearish standpoint, Mihir, another crypto analyst, notes that the top formations for Bitcoin price throughout 2023 look similar. He implies that another correction is likely for BTC.