- The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss on-chain tool suggests that Bitcoin is not anywhere near the expected ATH.
- The S2F model shows Bitcoin's potential to lift to higher levels after a 35% retreat from the recent highs.
Bitcoin has engaged thrust boosters during the ongoing bull cycle. The flagship cryptocurrency closed this November at an all-time high after rallying to $19,882. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin is just getting started and could hit astronomical levels as high as $360,000.
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss turns massively bullish
According to Glassnodehe, the "Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) refers to "the difference between Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss." It is also calculated by subtracting the Realized Cap from the Market.
In instances where a huge percentage of Bitcoin's market cap is made up of unrealized profits, investors find themselves being greedy. On the other hand, as the ratio falls and BTC price tanks, investors in the market start to be fearful. Lastly, "when the unrealized gains turn into unrealized losses, we enter the phase of capitulation and apathy."
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss chart
According to this on-chain metric, Bitcoin is still at the initial stages of the ongoing bull run. At the time of writing, the NUPL holds at 0.6 and. On the upside, the tool is expected to hit 0.8 before Bitcoin begins to retreat.
The chart below highlights the magnitude Bitcoin has rallied after the NUPL hit 0.6. In 2011 Bitcoin rallied over 3,000% and traded highs of $18. Consequently, in 2013, BTC spiked by more than 800% to exchange hands at $165 after the NUPL shot up from 0.6 to 0.8.
Similar bullish price action was experienced in 2014 after the NUPL metric spiked to 0.8. Bitcoin price hit highs of $598 followed by a massive correction under $300 in 2015. The next time the tool hit levels around 0.8 was during the 2017 bull run when Bitcoin rallied to the all-time high close to $20,000.
Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss chart
Considering that the NUPL is at 0.6 and could complete the leg up to 0.8. Bitcoin will likely hit incredible levels in this bullish market before a significant reversal comes into the picture.
According to PlanB, the brains behind Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (S2F) model, the flagship cryptocurrency is yet to hit proper ATH, and that it is still at the beginning of the rally. PlanB anticipates a reversal as big as 35% but BTC might resume the rally to new levels.
Bitcoin S2F model
According to Santiment, Bitcoin's tailwind continues to intensify as whales holding a significant amount of BTC grow. For instance, addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC increased by 44 in November.
Similarly, whales holding between 10 and 100 BTC shot upwards from roughly 139,000 to 139,700 in the same period. The increase in large volume holders is a bullish indicator as investors anticipate gains to higher levels.
Bitcoin holder distribution chart
Bitcoin is also holding onto the largest bullish candlestick in history, which gives credibility to the expected spike to a new all-time high.
BTC/USD monthly chart
It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin has retraced from the new all-time high and even slipped under $19,500. BTC/USD is trading at $19,487 at the time of writing. The bellwether cryptocurrency must hold above $19,000 to ensure that the uptrend stays intact. Otherwise, pressure behind the coin might surge, as investors panic sell to cash out in fear of diving into losses.
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