Bitcoin price is poised for a decline as Mt.Gox-related transfers add to selling pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly down by 0.5% at $59,039 on Tuesday, struggling to rebound from a 3.6% decline on Sunday. Continued outflows from US-listed Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on Monday and recent fund movements from the Mt. Gox wallet, as revealed by Arkham Intelligence data, add to the market's uncertainty. Additionally, bearish signs from on-chain data appear to be a drag on Bitcoin’s price prospects in the near-term, outweighing the move from mining company Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), which has laid out plans to raise $250 million to acquire more Bitcoin. 

Daily digest market movers: Bitcoin holds $58,000 as MARA announces $250 million funds to buy BTC

• According to Arkham Intelligence data, Mt. Gox wallets showed fund movement on Tuesday, with a wallet that previously received $2.19 billion in Bitcoin from Mt. Gox now initiating test transactions. This wallet, identified as bc1q26, is likely Bitgo, the final exchange collaborating with the Mt. Gox Trustee to distribute funds to creditors. According to Arkham, the move could be related to the distribution of funds to Mt.Gox creditors. This activity could generate FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders and potentially contribute to a decline in Bitcoin's price.

• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) announced on Monday a plan to offer $250 million in convertible senior notes maturing in 2031, targeting qualified institutional buyers to fund corporate initiatives and acquire additional Bitcoin.
• MARA announced that initial purchasers can acquire up to $37.5 million in notes within 13 days from the original issuance date. Under specific conditions, the company can redeem the notes for cash on or after September 6, 2028.

• Lookonchain data shows that US-listed 10 Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of 4,255 BTC worth $254.17 million on Monday. Monitoring these ETFs' net inflow data is crucial for understanding market dynamics and investor sentiment. The combined Bitcoin reserves held by the 10 US spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $54.19 billion.

• According to Coinglass's data, BTC's long-to-short ratio is 0.928. This ratio reflects bearish sentiment in the market, as a number below one suggests more traders anticipate the price of the asset to decline, bolstering Bitcoin's bearish outlook.

Bitcoin long-to-short ratio chart

Technical analysis: BTC shows signs of weakness

Bitcoin price has consistently faced resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $62,066, drawn from the swing high of $70,079 from July 29 to the low of $49,101 from August 5. As of Tuesday, it is trading down by 0.5% at $59,039.

If the $62,066 level continues to act as resistance, in conjunction with the broken trendline and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at around $62,659, selling pressure could increase.

A failure to break above $62,066 might result in an almost 20% decline, potentially testing the daily support level of $49,917.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) trade below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively, suggesting a strong bearish trend.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if Bitcoin closes above the August 2 high of $65,596, it would set a higher high on the daily chart, possibly leading to a 6% price increase and testing the weekly resistance at $69,648.