An inversion of the 2 year and 10-year bond yield curves in the previous session sent panic across the markets. The DOW closed down 800 points, below its 200-day moving average as investors sold out of riskier assets, such as stocks, and moved into safer havens such as bonds, gold and the Japanese yen.

The inversion of the 2-year yield curve with the 10 year yield curve provoked such a reaction because it is considered a clear signal for a recession. These yield curve's inverted before each of the 7 previous recessions, including the Great Recession.

Whilst an inverted yield curve preceded each recession, every inverted yield curve does not lead to a recession. In the same breath, US – Sino trade tensions, Brexit, Italian politics and political unrest in Hong Kong are giving investors plenty to fret about.

Fears have eased in early trading this morning; investors are bargain hunting after yesterday's bloodbath and Dow futures are nudging higher recouping some losses. Yet without any good news to support the move higher, today's rally could be more of a dead cat bounce rather than any meaningful advance owing to a change in risk sentiment.

Dow Transportation Index Indicates More Pain To Come

The fact is that no one actually knows what is next for the markets. However, the signs flashing from the markets are not great. Far from it. In addition to the inverted 2 year and 10 year yield curve, the Dow transport index which is often viewed as a lead indicator for wider stock market movements is also showing signs of strain. The DJT is currently down 11.5% from its April high, whilst the Dow is down just 6.8%.

Up Next

US retail sales data is up next. Expectations are for retail sales to have increased a steady 0.3% month on month. Given current slowdown fears and surprise to the downside could result in US futures quickly giving up this morning's gains.

Dow Jones

CFD and forex trading are leveraged products and can result in losses that exceed your deposits. They may not be suitable for everyone. Ensure you fully understand the risks. From time to time, City Index Limited’s (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD consolidates the recovery above 0.6800, focus on trade

AUD/USD trades in a tight range above the 0.68 handle, consolidating Friday's solid comeback amid escalating Hong Kong turmoil that continues to weigh on the market mood. The Aussie awaits US-China trade updates for fresh directives. 

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY holds steady near 108.75 amid Hong Kong woes, trade hopes

The USD/JPY pair is seen treading water around 108.75 region, as a sense of caution prevails in Monday’s Asian trading amid escalating Hong Kong violence. All eyes to remain on US-China trade negotiations amid light US calendar.

USD/JPY News

USD/JPY holds steady near 108.75 amid Hong Kong woes, trade hopes

The USD/JPY pair is seen treading water around 108.75 region, as a sense of caution prevails in Monday’s Asian trading amid escalating Hong Kong violence. All eyes to remain on US-China trade negotiations amid light US calendar.

USD/JPY News

US Dollar Index challenges weekly lows near 98.00

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, is now accelerating the downside and threatens to test the key support at 98.00 the figure.

US Dollar Index News

Gold seesaws around $1468 amid geopolitical tension, trade optimism

With the geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and Iran crossing wires, optimism surrounding the US-CN trade deal seems to fail in luring the Gold sellers. As a result, Gold takes rounds to $1,468 during early Asia.

Gold News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures