An inversion of the 2 year and 10-year bond yield curves in the previous session sent panic across the markets. The DOW closed down 800 points, below its 200-day moving average as investors sold out of riskier assets, such as stocks, and moved into safer havens such as bonds, gold and the Japanese yen.
The inversion of the 2-year yield curve with the 10 year yield curve provoked such a reaction because it is considered a clear signal for a recession. These yield curve's inverted before each of the 7 previous recessions, including the Great Recession.
Whilst an inverted yield curve preceded each recession, every inverted yield curve does not lead to a recession. In the same breath, US – Sino trade tensions, Brexit, Italian politics and political unrest in Hong Kong are giving investors plenty to fret about.
Fears have eased in early trading this morning; investors are bargain hunting after yesterday's bloodbath and Dow futures are nudging higher recouping some losses. Yet without any good news to support the move higher, today's rally could be more of a dead cat bounce rather than any meaningful advance owing to a change in risk sentiment.
Dow Transportation Index Indicates More Pain To Come
The fact is that no one actually knows what is next for the markets. However, the signs flashing from the markets are not great. Far from it. In addition to the inverted 2 year and 10 year yield curve, the Dow transport index which is often viewed as a lead indicator for wider stock market movements is also showing signs of strain. The DJT is currently down 11.5% from its April high, whilst the Dow is down just 6.8%.
Up Next
US retail sales data is up next. Expectations are for retail sales to have increased a steady 0.3% month on month. Given current slowdown fears and surprise to the downside could result in US futures quickly giving up this morning's gains.
CFD and forex trading are leveraged products and can result in losses that exceed your deposits. They may not be suitable for everyone. Ensure you fully understand the risks. From time to time, City Index Limited’s (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 inflation forecast, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
AUD/USD consolidates gains above 0.6500 after Australian PPI data
AUD/USD is consolidating gains above 0.6500 in Asian trading on Friday. The pair capitalizes on an annual increase in Australian PPI data. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar and improving market mood also underpin the Aussie ahead of the US PCE inflation data.
Gold price keeps its range around $2,330, awaits US PCE data
Gold price is consolidating Thursday's rebound early Friday. Gold price jumped after US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the Fed could lower borrowing costs. Focus shifts to US PCE inflation on Friday.
Stripe looks to bring back crypto payments as stablecoin market cap hits all-time high
Stripe announced on Thursday that it would add support for USDC stablecoin, as the stablecoin market exploded in March, according to reports by Cryptocompare.
US economy: Slower growth with stronger inflation
The US Dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.