Razvan Mihai, CFTe
Forex Rally
EURUSD - Back in its Comfort Zone
A new year has begun, but the EURUSD is stilltrading in the comfort of December’s range. The side move is limited by the15th of December high of 1.1055 and the 7th of December low of 1.0796. After itbroke above the Fibonacci, set in the past analysis, the price of the mosttraded currency pairs rallied to retest 1.1000.
The 250 pips range may continue to sit strongduring the first half of January. I expect volumes and volatility to startpicking up in the second half of this month. A confirmed break below theintermediate support from 1.0846 would signal a drop back towards the keysupport of the range, while a confirmed break above the round number level(1.1000) would signal another rally towards the key resistance of the range.
USDJPY - Retesting the Key Support
The New Year’s Eve found the USDJPY almosttouching 120.00. The first day of trading from 2016 pushed the Japanese yen higher.The price of the currency pair dropped below 120.00 and went straight to thekey level support from 118.63.
I am currently expecting for the price to retestor even to make a false break above 120.00. The main move is still sideways onthe daily chart. A considerable break above the round number level accompaniedby a close could signal the possibility of the price to move higher towards thenext resistance from 121.00. If the price will break this week below 118.63 Iwould consider this signal to be a strong bearish one.
NZDUSD - The Uptrend Continues
The NZDUSD uptrend is still in place. The priceaction of this currency pair has drawn higher high and higher lows throughoutthe entire month of December. The last high has hit the key resistance levelfrom 0.6884. The price bounced back from the resistance and broke the maintrend line. This is considered to be a negative signal in this currentdirection.
Even though there is a negative signal showingthat the trend is weakening, I still believe that there is a good probabilityfor the price to rally again towards 0.6800 or even higher towards the mainresistance. I would consider a strong negative signal the break below thesupport from 0.6685.
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