Kshitij Consultancy Services Team
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Good Morning!
Volatility seeped in on Friday as the US NFP came lower at 175K than the previous of 315K and the unemployment rate came higher at 3.9%. The Dollar Index tested 104.50 before becoming stable within its range of 106.50-104.50, while EURUSD rose to 1.08 and may continue to remain ranged within 1.0650-1.0850 for a while. EURJPY and USDJPY look stable above 164 and 152 respectively and can reattempt to rise towards 168 and 154/156 in the medium term. Aussie has been rising as expected and can reverse after testing resistance near 0.67/6750 while above 0.66. Pound rose sharply to test 1.2634 before slipping down Below 1.26, it can fall towards 1.24. USDCNY plunged sharply and could be headed towards 7.20/18 if no immediate reversal is seen over today and tomorrow. EURINR is back within its range of 88.50–89.50/90 after testing 90.1937 on the upside. USDINR may trade between 83.30 and 83.50/55 this week.
The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move down. The Treasury yields were dragged down after the US NFP and Unemployment data release. The US added 175K to the non-farm payroll, less than market expectation of 243K. The unemployment inched up to 3.9% from 3.8%. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further from here before a fresh rise happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are also coming down. They can fall further to test their supports and then resume their overall uptrend.
Dow Jones has risen, breaking above upper end of the sideways range. While this break sustains, a further rise looks possible in the near term. Dax and Nifty looks mixed and are likely to trade sideways for a while. Nikkei is closed. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.
Crude prices are near their key supports, which if hold, can lead to a bounce back soon. Gold looks bearish for the near term. Silver and Copper have bounced but could face resistance at 27.30/50 and 4.60 respectively. Natural Gas has risen towards 2.2 and can rise further to 2.3.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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