Morning briefing: EUR/USD rose to 1.0800

Kshitij Consultancy Services Team Kshitij Consultancy Services

Good Morning!

Volatility seeped in on Friday as the US NFP came lower at 175K than the previous of 315K and the unemployment rate came higher at 3.9%. The Dollar Index tested 104.50 before becoming stable within its range of 106.50-104.50, while EURUSD rose to 1.08 and may continue to remain ranged within 1.0650-1.0850 for a while. EURJPY and USDJPY look stable above 164 and 152 respectively and can reattempt to rise towards 168 and 154/156 in the medium term. Aussie has been rising as expected and can reverse after testing resistance near 0.67/6750 while above 0.66. Pound rose sharply to test 1.2634 before slipping down Below 1.26, it can fall towards 1.24. USDCNY plunged sharply and could be headed towards 7.20/18 if no immediate reversal is seen over today and tomorrow. EURINR is back within its range of 88.50–89.50/90 after testing 90.1937 on the upside. USDINR may trade between 83.30 and 83.50/55 this week.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move down. The Treasury yields were dragged down after the US NFP and Unemployment data release. The US added 175K to the non-farm payroll, less than market expectation of 243K. The unemployment inched up to 3.9% from 3.8%. Both the Treasury and the German yields have room to fall further from here before a fresh rise happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are also coming down. They can fall further to test their supports and then resume their overall uptrend.

Dow Jones has risen, breaking above upper end of the sideways range. While this break sustains, a further rise looks possible in the near term. Dax and Nifty looks mixed and are likely to trade sideways for a while. Nikkei is closed. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen.

Crude prices are near their key supports, which if hold, can lead to a bounce back soon. Gold looks bearish for the near term. Silver and Copper have bounced but could face resistance at 27.30/50 and 4.60 respectively. Natural Gas has risen towards 2.2 and can rise further to 2.3.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Kshitij Consultancy Services Team

Kshitij Consultancy Services

More from Kshitij Consultancy Services Team

EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1850 in quiet session

EUR/USD stays defensive but holds 1.1850 amid quiet markets in the European hours on Monday. The US Dollar is struggling for direction due to thin liquidity conditions as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day holiday.

GBP/USD flat lines near 1.3650 ahead of UK and US data

GBP/USD kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range near 1.3650 on Monday. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important data releases from the UK and the US.

Gold corrects lower, tries to stabilize above $5,000

Gold started the week under bearish pressure and declined to the $4,960 area before staging a modest rebound. As trading volumes remain thin with the US financial markets remaining closed on Presidents' Day holiday, XAU/USD looks to stabilize above $5,000 ahead of this week's key data releases.

Bitcoin consolidates as on-chain data show mixed signals

Bitcoin price has consolidated between $65,700 and $72,000 over the past nine days, with no clear directional bias. US-listed spot ETFs recorded a $359.91 million weekly outflow, marking the fourth consecutive week of withdrawals.

The week ahead: Key inflation readings and why the AI trade could be overdone

It is likely to be a quiet start to the week, with US markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day. European markets are higher across the board and gold is clinging to the $5,000 level after the tamer than expected CPI report in the US reduced haven flows to precious metals.

Monero Price Forecast: XMR risks a drop below $300 under mounting bearish pressure

Monero (XMR) starts the week under pressure, recording a 4% decline at press time on Monday after a 7% drop the previous day, putting the $300 support zone in focus.