Weekly/Long-Term Forecast, October 2 - 6: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD, CRUDE OIL

LEADING INDICATORS

Main news of this week:
Wednesday: US - FOMC Minutes
Thursday: EU  - Draghi; Oil - Inventories
Friday: US - Core CPI
 

 

EURUSD

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13

Previous week was closed on main support 1.1760, so market still have a chance to rebound up to the resistance level 1.1910 (technically). Contribute to this scenario fundamental factor of very weak US "Non-farm payrolls" news, that was published on friday and felt suprisingly low from previous 156K to -33K, that can be a very strong signal for market correction to technical level 1.1910.

By history of this news indicator, we can see, that negative NFP market have once per 7-8 year cycle and after we started to have negative NFP, this crysis period is going over 12-18 month, where last of them was on 2001 and 2008 years. But sometimes its happens when NFP became negative, but if after this one we will have more again - this signal will became very dangerous. But before this apocalyptic scenario we do not have any other economic signals for such possible situation, so looks that negative NFP we had just because US economy is already fully loaded by working places, because unemployment is felt from 4.4% to 4.2%, that is very good sign.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between resistance 1.1760 and support 1.1650 - 1.1610.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.1760, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.1910.

chart from previous week forecast, october 2 - 6

 

Weekly chart from October 2

 

 

GBPUSD

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13
Market is trading in downtrend, but on main support level 1.3135, from that can have a correction to resistance 1.3236, from that we can expection continuation of downtrend to the next support 1.2932, because pound is still looks weak.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1.3236, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1.3494.

chart from previous week forecast, october 2 - 6

Weekly chart from October 2

 

 

GOLD

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13
The market is trading along a sideways trend between main support 1268 and resistance 1287.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 1287 (or from support 1268), which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 1315 - 1320.
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1268, which will be followed by a move down to support level 1241.

chart from previous week forecast, october 2 - 6

Weekly chart from October 2

 

 

 

 

CRUDE OIL

LEADING INDICATORS

 

Weekly forecast, October 9 - 13

Oil production is started to increase by much less pace, same time we have one more week reduction of inventories, that can provoce market on correction from support 49.13 to resistance 51.62. On previous week that level was strong resistance, so market had downtrend as technical factor, but looking on inventories reduction, support 49.13 is able to stop this trend scenario. From another way, this downtrend impulse is strong, where support 49.13 is the last one and by her break down market will continue downtrend to 47.05.

The market is trading along a sideways trend between support 49.13 and resistance 49.87.
The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 49.13, which will be followed by reaching support level 47.30.
An uptrend will start as soon as the market rises above resistance level 49.87, which will be followed by a move up to resistance level 51.62.

chart from previous week forecast, october 2 - 6

Weekly chart from October 2