Allan von Mehren
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
After a hectic week on the data front, we enter a slightly quieter period.
Inflation will be the main focus in the Nordic economies, especially in Sweden, where inflation is expected to fall to -0.3%. In light of this, we expect the Riksbank to cut interest rates in July. We do not expect rates to be adjusted at Wednesday’s meeting.
Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting will be the attention grabber in the US, with readers keen to get some insight into the central bank’s surprise on the interest rate outlook.
We look for slightly higher inflation in China as the effects of the Chinese New Year disappear from the data.
Chinese export figures for March are expected to show growth and together with money supply figures support the picture of an improving economy in Q3.
Global macro and market themes
After significant economic and financial uncertainty early this year, optimism is again returning to the financial markets – both in Europe and in emerging markets, where equities are again rising.
The ECB yet again refrained from further easing at its meeting on 3 April, but we still see it as likely that the ECB will take action sometime in the next six months. Inflation remains far below target.
Deflation is on the horizon, but we estimate that a period of modest deflation may not necessarily be that problematic for the economy.
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