Strongest trend lower

Using the VolatilityMarkets software to structure a USDCHF trend following trade idea.

Part 1) Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term USDCHF has been accelerating lower. In the long term USDCHF has been accelerating lower. With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with a time horizon.

Part 2) Trade idea details

2A) Trade idea graph

Chart

2b) Intraday predictions

Chart

Sell $ 354,129 USD or 3.54 lots of USDCHF, take profit at $ 0.9305 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,709 USD gain, stop out at $ 0.9376 with 50.03% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon

Part 3) USD/CHF trend analysis

USDCHF

USDCHF last price was $ 0.934974. The long term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and accelerating over the past 20 days.

Part 4) USD/CHF value analysis

USDCHF

Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 11 days and decreased 9 days. For every up day, there were 0.82 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2969% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4554% Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -0.86% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.043% percent.

Part 5) USD/CHF worst/best case scenario analysis

USDCHF

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDCHF, is $ 0.92727 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 0.942678 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 0.9376 could trade and that $ 0.9305 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key takeaways

  • Price today $ 0.934974.

  • Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 11 days and decreased 9 Days.

  • For every up day, there were 0.82 down days.

  • The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2969%

  • The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.4554%.

  • Over the past 20 Days, the price has decreased by -0.86% percent.

  • Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been -0.043% percent.

  • Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 0.0647 pips per day lower.

  • Over the last session, the price decreased by -15.41 pips.

  • Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.1648 %.

  • Over the last session, the price accelerated by 9.61 pips.

Volatility Markets provides trend following trade ideas for momentum traders. The Volatility Markets Newswire measures the direction and acceleration of a security and then structures a trade idea to capitalize on the trend. While trends have been shown to exist in markets over the past 100 years, they are no guarantee of future asset prices. You should take these ideas lightly and at your own risk.

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