USDCHF: Challenging its recent highs

EUR/USD

Making new lows.

• EUR/USD has failed to break the hourly resistance at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high). The subsequent new (marginal) lows confirm an underlying downtrend. An initial resistance can be found at 1.3398 (intraday high).

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. The downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Unimpressive bounce thus far.

• GBP/USD is showing signs of buying interest, as can be seen by the last two up days. However, the hourly resistance at 1.6893 (01/08/2014 high) needs at least to be broken to confirm some exhaustion in selling pressures. Another resistance can be found at 1.6928 (intraday high). An hourly support lies at 1.6814.

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6847.

USD/JPY

Consolidating after its recent sharp rise.

• USD/JPY is consolidating after the successful test of the key resistance at 103.02. The recent large daily shadows and dojis indicate market indecision. Monitor the short-term symmetrical triangle. A support stands at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Another support can be found at 102.04 (30/07/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Challenging its recent highs.

• USD/CHF is challenging its hourly resistance at 0.9107. The short-term bullish momentum remains positive as long as the support at 0.9041 (01/08/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 0.9008.

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207.
  Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Pushing higher.

• USD/CAD rose significantly higher yesterday, indicating persistent buying interest. The key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement) is challenged. Another resistance can be found at 1.1053. Hourly supports stand at 1.0905 (04/08/2014 low) and 1.0877 (31/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Remains thus far weak.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. The recent strength is seen as a short-term pullback as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.9355 (intraday high, see also the 38.2% retracement). An hourly support lies at 0.9276.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Bouncing.

• GBP/JPY has thus far successfully tested the key support at 172.38. Hourly resistances can now be found at 173.51 (05/08/2014 high) and 174.22 (30/07/2014 high). Another support lies at 170.97 (11/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Fading near the top of its declining channel.

• EUR/JPY has faded near the resistance implied by its declining channel (around 138.16). The break of the hourly support at 137.34 (22/07/2014 high) suggests the end of the rebound and favours a test of the recent lows. An initial resistance lies at 137.34 (previous support).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Pickup in selling pressures.

• EUR/GBP has failed to break the key resistance at 0.7981 and has broken the hourly support at 0.7940 (24/07/2014 high, see also the short-term rising channel). Other hourly supports can be found at 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low) and 0.7874.

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

The resistance at 1.2178 continues to hold.

• EUR/CHF has failed again to break the resistance at 1.2178. Monitor the test of the hourly support at 1.2155 (01/08/2014 low, see also the rising trendline), as a double-top formation could be underway. Another support can be found at 1.2146 (28/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

No recent new low.

• Gold continues to move within its short-term declining channel. However, the recent low at 1279 (01/08/2014 low) has held thus far. Hourly resistances can be found at 1302 (declining channel) and 1311 (23/07/2014 high). Another support lies at 1258.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Making new lows.

• Silver has made new lows, confirming the current underlying downtrend. The support at 20.00 has been broken. Supports can now be found at 19.76 (61.8% retracement) and 19.47. Hourly resistances lie at 20.29 and 20.56 (01/08/2014 high).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative, as can be seen by the long-term succession of lower highs since the April 2011 peak. However, a strong support area stands between 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.