USDCHF: Monitor the support at 0.9035

EUR/USD

Monitor the resistance at 1.3444.

• EUR/USD is bouncing within its underlying downtrend. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.3444 (28/07/2014 high) and 1.3485 (24/07/2014 high). An hourly support lies at 1.3367.

• In the longer term, EUR/USD is in a succession of lower highs and lower lows since May 2014. Downside risk is given by 1.3210 (second leg lower after the rebound from 1.3503 to 1.3700). A strong support stands at 1.3296 (07/11/2013 low). A key resistance lies at 1.3549 (21/07/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

The rising channel has been broken.

• GBP/USD continues its relentless decline since its mid-July peak. Despite, the overextended fall, the support implied by the rising channel (see also the 61.8% retracement) has been broken. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6893 (01/08/2014 high) and 1.6928 (intraday high). An hourly support now lies at 1.6814 (01/08/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the major resistance at 1.7043 (05/08/2009 high) calls for further strength. Resistances can be found at 1.7332 (see the 50% retracement of the 2008 decline) and 1.7447 (11/09/2008 low). A key support stands at 1.6693 (29/05/2014 low).

Buy stop 2 units at 1.6938, Obj: Close 1 unit at 1.7167, remaining at 1.7435, Stop: 1.6847.

USD/JPY 

Fading near the key resistance at 103.02.

• USD/JPY has weakened near the key resistance at 103.02. Monitor the support at 102.36 (18/06/2014 high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Another support can be found at 102.04 (30/07/2014 low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support 99.57 (19/11/2013 low) holds. However, a break to the upside out of the current consolidation phase between 100.76 (04/02/2014 low) and 103.02 is needed to resume the underlying bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 104.13 (04/04/2014 high), while a major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF 

Monitor the support at 0.9035.

• USD/CHF weakened on Friday. However, the short-term bullish momentum remains positive as long as the support at 0.9035 (28/07/2014 low) holds. Another support can be found at 0.9008. An hourly resistance now lies at 0.9107.

• From a longer term perspective, the recent technical improvements call for the end of the large corrective phase that started in July 2012. The long-term upside potential implied by the double-bottom formation is 0.9207. Furthermore, the break of the resistance at 0.9037 calls for a second leg higher (echoing the one started on 8 May) with an upside potential at 0.9191. As a result, a test of the strong resistance at 0.9156 (21/01/2014 high) is expected.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Fading near the key resistance at 1.0961?

• USD/CAD has exhibited significant upper shadows in the last two days, suggesting increasing selling pressures near the key resistance at 1.0961 (see also the 50% retracement). An hourly support can be found at 1.0877 (31/07/2014 low). Another support stands at 1.0797 (29/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose minimum upside potential is at 1.1725. However, a break of the support area implied by the long-term rising trendline and 1.0559 (29/11/2013 low) would invalidate this long-term bullish configuration.

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD 

Bouncing.

• AUD/USD has broken the key support at 0.9319, validating a bearish reversal pattern with a downside risk at 0.9206. The recent strength is seen as a short-term pullback as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 0.9355 (intraday high). The resistance implied by the short-term declining trendline (around 0.9334) has held thus far. An hourly support lies at 0.9276.

• In the longer term, prices are consolidating within the range defined by the key support at 0.9206 and the key resistance at 0.9461 (10/04/2014 high)/0.9505. The break of the support at 0.9319 calls for a test of the low of the range.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY 

Challenging the support at 172.38.

• GBP/JPY declined sharply on Friday, breaching the support at 172.61 (23/07/2014 low). Monitor the key support at 172.38. Hourly resistances can be found at 173.38 (intraday high) and 174.22 (30/07/2014 high). Another support lies at 170.97 (11/06/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key support at 167.78 (18/03/2014 low) holds.

• Friday's weakness has stopped our long position.

Our long position has been stopped.

EUR/JPY 

Approaching the top of its declining channel.

• EUR/JPY remains well supported after the break of the resistance at 137.34, as can be seen by the breach of the hourly resistance at 137.83 (50% retracement). However, prices need to break the resistance at 138.45 to invalidate the current declining channel. Hourly supports can be found at 137.51 (31/07/2014 low) and 137.34 (22/07/2014 high).

• The bearish breakout of the 200 day moving average confirms a deterioration of the mediumterm technical structure. A key support stands at 136.23 (04/02/2014 low), while a strong resistance lies at 104.09 (09/06/2014 high).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low) holds.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP 

The resistance at 0.7981 is challenged.

• EUR/GBP continues to improve after the break of the resistance at 0.7940. The key resistance at 0.7981 (see also the declining trendline) is challenged. Another key resistance stands at 0.8034. Hourly supports can be found at 0.7940 (24/07/2014 high) and 0.7904 (28/07/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the break of the key support area between 0.8082 (01/01/2013 low) and 0.8065 (05/06/2014 low) opens the way for a full retracement of the rise that started at 0.7755 (23/07/2012 low). Another strong support stands at 0.7694 (20/10/2008 low). A break of the resistance at 0.8034 (25/06/2014 high) is needed to suggest some exhaustion in the medium-term selling pressures.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF 

Weakening near the resistance at 1.2178.

• EUR/CHF is weakening near the resistance at 1.2178, suggesting increasing selling pressures. The hourly support at 1.2160 (30/07/2014 low) has been broken. Another support is given by the rising trendline (around 1.2152).

• In the longer term, prices are moving in a broad horizontal range between the key support at 1.2104 and the resistance at 1.2261.

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the foreseeable future.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD) 

Bouncing.

• Gold is bouncing within its short-term declining channel. Hourly resistances can be found at 1299 (31/07/2014 high) and 1311 (23/07/2014 high). Hourly supports are given by the 61.8% retracement (1281) and 1258.

• In the long-term, we are sceptical that the horizontal range between the strong support at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) and the major resistance at 1434 (30/08/2013 high) is a long-term bullish reversal pattern. As a result, a decline towards the low of this range is eventually favoured.

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD) 

The support at 20.31 has been breached.

• Silver continues to move within its declining channel. Prices have moved below the support at 20.31 but the subsequent lack of followthrough alleviates the bearish consequences. Hourly resistances stand at 20.56 (01/08/2014 high, see also the declining channel) and 20.82. A support stands at 20.00.

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the successful test of the strong support area between 18.84 and 18.23 (28/06/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.41 (24/02/2014 high) indicate clear exhaustion in the selling pressures. A key resistance stands at 22.18 (24/02/2014 high).

Await fresh signal.