Updated technical GBP/JPY price forecast

Mark O’Donnell Blackbull Markets Limited

Most traders are aware of the rout that the USD is carving into the Japanese yen and the Great British pound.
Since the beginning of March 2022, the USD has appreciated against the yen by 11%, and 7% against the pound. Naturally, with their respective performances against the USD, the pound has strengthened against the yen since the beginning of March. But, by how much and what is the technical and fundamental perspective of the GBPJPY pair moving forward?

GBP/JPY daily perspective

Some long candles have begun presenting themselves in the GBPJPY daily chart recently, pushing and pulling this pair across a significant range over each trading session. This week, GBPJPY has swung between 156.30 and 161.80.

As of writing, the GPYJPY is trading at 159.200. This level aligns closely to a resistance level from three previous highs going back to October 2021.
The GBPJPY blasted through this resistance quite emphatically on March 22, and then slowly trended up to a peak of ~168.00 within a month. Whereupon pessimism in the UK economy set in, as the Bank of England gave warning of a potential recession, and the GBPJPY gave up a good chunk of gains. At the same time, the pound hit a 2-year low against the greenback.

Even so, traders are still aware of the ultra-accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan. Thus, any potential dovishness from the Bank of England in response to the fear of recession is unlikely to reach the levels exhibited by the Bank of Japan. This fundamental factor may help to morph the 158.00 level, once a persistent level of a resistance, into a firm level of support moving forward.

Figure 1. GBPJPY 1D

GBP/JPY 2H perspective

On a short term view, we might expect some range-bound trading in the GBPJPY. The Average True Range indicator, on a 2-hour chart is showing weak buying and selling pressure. For a GBP bull, a bias for a tight range between 158.00 and 162.00 might be desired. A bear may extend that lower bound down to 155.00 in substitution for 158.00.

Figure 2. GBPJPY 2H with ATR indicator

Author

Mark O’Donnell

Blackbull Markets Limited

Mark O’Donnell is a Research Analyst with BlackBull Markets in Auckland, New Zealand.

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